Land Rover Discovery I
Flagged undervalued because asking -18% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, -7% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 29 yr, 115k mi example, ~$9.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 70% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 70% got the direction right, median value error ±25%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 77 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±33%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 1998 · 73k mi | $6.1K–$17.7K | $9.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-02 | 1998 · 194k mi | $4.4K–$12.7K | $14.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-02 | 1995 · 235k mi | $4.3K–$12.6K | $8.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 1996 · 205k mi | $4.3K–$12.6K | $3.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 | 1995 · 116k mi | $5.2K–$15.1K | $12.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 1991 · 130k mi | $4.7K–$13.6K | $14.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-08 | 1996 · 151k mi | $4.3K–$12.4K | $7.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-07 | 1998 · 281k mi | $4.2K–$12.2K | $13.4K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1998 · 127k mi | ebay | $4.4K–$17.0K ($8.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 69% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | 70% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 60% | Low | 55% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 53 | 44 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 57 | 42 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 40 | 56 |
| Subaru Baja | 44 | 68 | 52 |
| BMW F650GS | 86 | 8 | 55 |
| BMW R1250GS | 52 | 33 | 44 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 57 | 49 | 60 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 65 | 39 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.0)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.0)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.