Lamborghini Diablo
Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, asking -7% vs historic sold, and sell-through 84%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 15k mi example, ~$450K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 69% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 59 scored forecasts: 69% got the direction right, median value error ±34%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 105 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±25%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | 1991 · 1k mi | $409K–$896K | $803K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | 1998 · 12k mi | $320K–$701K | $534K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 1997 · 20k mi | $296K–$648K | $555K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 1992 · 6k mi | $293K–$640K | $313K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 1991 · 8k mi | $308K–$673K | $313K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | 2000 · 9k mi | $313K–$685K | $2425K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | 2001 · 19k mi | $298K–$653K | $725K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 1997 · 1k mi | $369K–$808K | $828K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1991 · 27k mi | classic | $235K–$669K ($396K) |
| open | 1999 · 8k mi | classic | $259K–$730K ($435K) |
| open | 1991 · 24k mi | classic | $251K–$706K ($421K) |
| open | 2001 · 14k mi | classic | $229K–$659K ($388K) |
| open | 1996 · 22k mi | classic | $214K–$618K ($364K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 49% |
| 12 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 69% |
| 24 mo | UP | 57% | Low | 87% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and Unemployment Rate.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2008
$100K invested 2008-01 → today (18.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 44 | 56 | 36 |
| Ferrari 360 | 39 | 70 | 51 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 67 | 56 |
| Ferrari 458 | 45 | 40 | 52 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 2 | 57 | 41 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 77 | 42 |
| Ferrari 488 | 36 | 57 | 45 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 8 | 54 | 44 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.6)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-5.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-5.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-5.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.