Land Rover Defender (1993-2016)
Flagged undervalued because -9% vs 2-yr avg, -9% vs 3-yr trend, sell-through 96%, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 27 yr, 90k mi example, ~$54.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±27%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 120 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±37%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 1998 · 105k mi | $28.6K–$83.0K | $17.6K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-11 | 1999 · 148k mi | $21.9K–$63.6K | $38.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 1996 · 16k mi | $28.9K–$83.7K | $35.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-27 | 1997 · 1k mi | $43.2K–$125K | $96.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-02 | 1995 · 89k mi | $28.5K–$82.6K | $53.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | 1994 · 2k mi | $42.2K–$122K | $55.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | 1999 · 132k mi | $22.7K–$65.7K | $32.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2001 · 247k mi | $16.1K–$46.6K | $14.7K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2011 · 82k mi | ebay | $27.3K–$107K ($54.0K) |
| open | 1995 · 117k mi | ebay | $23.4K–$91.9K ($46.4K) |
| open | 1997 · 0k mi | ebay | $47.6K–$187K ($94.4K) |
| open | 2011 · 82k mi | ebay | $27.1K–$106K ($53.7K) |
| open | 1998 · 153k mi | ebay | $18.9K–$74.4K ($37.6K) |
| open | 1995 · 117k mi | ebay | $23.3K–$91.4K ($46.1K) |
| open | 2011 · 82k mi | ebay | $27.2K–$107K ($53.9K) |
| open | 1997 · 0k mi | ebay | $45.9K–$180K ($90.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 54% | Low | 70% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 54% | Low | 68% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | 56% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 12 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 22% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by WTI Crude Oil and Case-Shiller Home Price, though Case-Shiller Home Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 53 | 44 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 57 | 42 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 40 | 56 |
| Subaru Baja | 44 | 68 | 52 |
| BMW F650GS | 86 | 8 | 55 |
| BMW R1250GS | 52 | 33 | 44 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 57 | 49 | 60 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 65 | 39 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-50,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$30,910 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$30,910 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-50,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-50,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$30,910 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.