Land Rover Defender 110
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 90%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 27 yr, 70k mi example, ~$43.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 64% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 42 scored forecasts: 64% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 662 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±34%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 1998 · 1k mi | $41.7K–$161K | $121K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | 1994 · 33k mi | $25.1K–$96.3K | $197K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-05 | 2007 · 92k mi | $24.9K–$72.3K | $34.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 1997 · 189k mi | $22.1K–$64.2K | $40.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-30 | 1991 · 3k mi | $48.9K–$142K | $148K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-28 | 1983 · 75k mi | $25.4K–$73.9K | $35.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-27 | 2009 · 88k mi | $25.3K–$73.5K | $26.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 1992 · 118k mi | $25.0K–$72.7K | $23.0K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1997 · 0k mi | classic | $42.4K–$163K ($83.2K) |
| open | 1996 · 1k mi | classic | $42.2K–$163K ($82.8K) |
| open | 1992 · 2k mi | classic | $41.9K–$162K ($82.4K) |
| open | 1994 | hagerty | $21.7K–$83.9K ($42.7K) |
| open | 1993 · 8k mi | classic | $32.7K–$127K ($64.3K) |
| open | 1993 · 127k mi | classic | $21.2K–$82.1K ($41.8K) |
| open | 2001 · 100k mi | classic | $22.3K–$85.9K ($43.7K) |
| open | 2002 · 27k mi | classic | $24.6K–$94.9K ($48.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | 64% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 50% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) and Case-Shiller Home Price, though LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 61 | 43 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 64 | 31 | 50 |
| Honda Acty | 50 | 53 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 59 | 45 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 45 | 42 | 36 |
| BMW R1250GS | 60 | 46 | 54 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 47 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 57 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,474 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$54,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$54,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,474 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$54,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,474 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.