Land Rover Defender 110
Flagged undervalued because -9% vs 2-yr avg, -8% vs 3-yr trend, inventory -0%, and sell-through 86%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 27 yr, 72k mi example, ~$44.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 43 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 684 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±34%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | 2001 · 186k mi | $21.3K–$61.6K | $32.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 2008 · 145k mi | $23.2K–$67.2K | $22.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-13 | 1994 · 4k mi | $48.6K–$141K | $69.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | 1997 · 170k mi | $22.1K–$64.0K | $28.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | 2016 · 4k mi | $48.6K–$141K | $95.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-05 | 1992 · 8k mi | $37.3K–$108K | $63.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | 1988 · 18k mi | $30.6K–$88.8K | $48.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | 1995 · 2k mi | $47.2K–$137K | $142K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1992 · 2k mi | classic | $41.9K–$162K ($82.4K) |
| open | 1987 · 2k mi | classic | $41.8K–$161K ($82.1K) |
| open | 1988 · 1k mi | classic | $42.1K–$162K ($82.4K) |
| open | 1985 · 10k mi | classic | $28.1K–$108K ($55.2K) |
| open | 1988 · 0k mi | classic | $41.7K–$160K ($81.7K) |
| open | 1988 · 1k mi | classic | $41.3K–$158K ($80.9K) |
| open | 1990 · 140k mi | classic | $20.3K–$78.0K ($39.8K) |
| open | 1992 · 155k mi | classic | $19.9K–$76.3K ($39.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 69% |
| 12 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 48% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Case-Shiller Home Price and Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), though LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 53 | 44 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 57 | 42 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 53 | 40 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 44 | 68 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 86 | 8 | 52 |
| BMW R1250GS | 53 | 33 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 57 | 49 | 60 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 65 | 39 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$17,795 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-18,905 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$37,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-23,699 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$17,795 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-18,905 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.