Chevrolet C/K 1973-1991
The Chevrolet C/K 1973-1991 market is currently signaling a flat trajectory for the next 6 to 24 months, each with a 0.5 probability. This outlook is informed by very low appreciation momentum at 0.28, high depreciation risk at 94.16, and low liquidity at 3.81. The Case-Shiller National Home Price index, with a 0.74 correlation and 6-month lead, stands out as a strong leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 42 yr, 20k mi example, ~$17.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 64% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 107 scored forecasts: 64% got the direction right, median value error ±29%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1978 | hagerty | $8.8K–$33.7K ($17.2K) |
| open | 1986 · 2k mi | ebay | $15.5K–$59.3K ($30.3K) |
| open | 1984 · 16k mi | ebay | $11.3K–$43.3K ($22.1K) |
| open | 1984 · 16k mi | ebay | $11.3K–$43.3K ($22.1K) |
| open | 1973 · 52k mi | BaT | $12.3K–$47.2K ($24.1K) |
| open | 1984 · 16k mi | ebay | $11.3K–$42.6K ($21.9K) |
| open | 1973 | BaT | $9.7K–$36.6K ($18.9K) |
| open | 1986 · 1k mi | hemmings | $16.2K–$61.1K ($31.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 64% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 64% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 62% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-05 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 57 | 47 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 66 | 33 | 51 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 57 | 53 |
| Subaru Baja | 61 | 58 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 41 | 51 | 59 |
| BMW R1250GS | 53 | 33 | 51 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 50 | 29 | 34 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 63 | 62 | 39 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$62,500 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,250 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$62,500 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,250 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,495 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,250 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.