McLaren 720S
Given the thin data, this read for the McLaren 720S market should be considered low-confidence, despite a model confidence of 0.935. The market shows slight overvaluation (50.47 overvaluation score compared to 43.1 undervaluation) and relatively low liquidity (38.99). A volatile regime is anticipated, with an equal probability (0.5) of a flat trend at 6 and 24 months, and a 0.47 probability of a downward trend at 12 months; the Case-Shiller National Home Price index is a leading indicator with a 0.67 correlation.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 6 yr, 6k mi example, ~$218K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 48% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 27 scored forecasts: 48% got the direction right, median value error ±12%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 78 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | 2021 · 2k mi | $166K–$361K | $156K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-02 | 2020 · 1k mi | $174K–$378K | $230K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | 2019 · 13k mi | $154K–$335K | $341K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-08 | 2018 · 7k mi | $159K–$346K | $206K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2022 · 8k mi | $158K–$345K | $278K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2022 · 8k mi | $131K–$398K | $278K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-14 | 2018 · 0k mi | $183K–$397K | $234K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-07 | 2021 · 23k mi | $147K–$319K | $227K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2019 · 22k mi | BaT | $116K–$344K ($200K) |
| open | 2020 · 22k mi | ebay | $119K–$352K ($205K) |
| open | 2018 · 11k mi | ebay | $125K–$366K ($214K) |
| open | 2018 · 11k mi | ebay | $128K–$376K ($219K) |
| open | 2021 · 18k mi | classic | $132K–$377K ($223K) |
| open | 2021 · 5k mi | ebay | $145K–$412K ($244K) |
| open | 2018 · 14k mi | classic | $137K–$387K ($230K) |
| open | 2020 · 14k mi | classic | $137K–$386K ($230K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 61% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 47% | Low | 48% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 40% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 19 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 27% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Initial Jobless Claims and Dow Jones Industrial, though Bitcoin (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 53 | 52 | 36 |
| Ferrari 360 | 21 | 84 | 50 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 82 | 55 |
| Ferrari 458 | 25 | 68 | 40 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 1 | 9 | 43 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 69 | 24 |
| Ferrari 488 | 28 | 65 | 36 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 6 | 60 | 45 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.1)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.