Ferrari 599 GTB
Flagged undervalued because -39% vs 2-yr avg, and -33% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 16 yr, 15k mi example, ~$200K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±37%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 200 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±28%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 2007 · 16k mi | $118K–$263K | $292K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-17 | 2010 · 10k mi | $134K–$298K | $321K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-09 | 2007 · 18k mi | $110K–$244K | $158K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-08 | 2009 · 15k mi | $117K–$260K | $68.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-02 | 2008 · 8k mi | $140K–$311K | $252K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-20 | 2007 · 20k mi | $93.8K–$209K | $129K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | 2010 · 19k mi | $96.2K–$214K | $1000K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 | 2011 · 0k mi | $312K–$694K | $1751K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2008 · 9k mi | classic | $136K–$392K ($231K) |
| open | 2007 | BaT | $120K–$345K ($203K) |
| open | 2007 · 7k mi | classic | $146K–$420K ($248K) |
| open | 2010 · 11k mi | classic | $133K–$384K ($226K) |
| open | 2007 · 16k mi | classic | $116K–$334K ($197K) |
| open | 2008 · 17k mi | classic | $114K–$329K ($194K) |
| open | 2009 | classic | $120K–$345K ($203K) |
| open | 2007 · 2k mi | classic | $251K–$723K ($426K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 71% |
| 12 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | UP | 57% | Low | 78% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-01 → today (10.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 53 | 58 | 40 |
| Ferrari 360 | 57 | 36 | 39 |
| Ferrari 458 | 54 | 31 | 51 |
| Ferrari 488 | 52 | 38 | 47 |
| Ferrari 550/575 Maranello | 56 | 47 | 54 |
| McLaren 570S | 51 | 55 | 52 |
| McLaren 720S | 51 | 47 | 44 |
| Ferrari 812 Superfast | 62 | 41 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-35,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-35,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-35,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-35,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-35,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.