Ferrari 550/575 Maranello
The data suggests a potential upward movement for the Ferrari 550/575 Maranello market over the next 6 to 24 months, with probabilities ranging from 0.54 to 0.58, though within a volatile regime. While depreciation risk scores 57.25, the market shows a liquidity score of 55.17 and an undervaluation score of 52.31, with the Case-Shiller National Home Price identified as the strongest leading indicator, correlating at 0.89 with a 7-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 26 yr, 20k mi example, ~$218K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 62% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 81 scored forecasts: 62% got the direction right, median value error ±102%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 216 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±23%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | 2001 · 6k mi | $198K–$432K | $1265K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 2001 · 6k mi | $199K–$436K | $1628K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2001 · 18k mi | $145K–$318K | $495K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-15 | 1998 · 22k mi | $134K–$293K | $199K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 2002 · 5k mi | $205K–$449K | $587K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-07 | 1996 · 31k mi | $109K–$239K | $145K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-03 | 2001 · 8k mi | $182K–$398K | $568K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-03 | 1999 · 53k mi | $97.0K–$212K | $168K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1997 · 26k mi | classic | $118K–$332K ($198K) |
| open | 2001 · 12k mi | classic | $150K–$423K ($252K) |
| open | 1997 · 71k mi | classic | $102K–$286K ($171K) |
| open | 1998 · 7k mi | classic | $166K–$479K ($282K) |
| open | 1998 · 7k mi | classic | $166K–$479K ($282K) |
| open | 1997 · 12k mi | classic | $146K–$422K ($248K) |
| open | 1999 · 78k mi | classic | $49.5K–$143K ($84.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 7k mi | classic | $166K–$479K ($282K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 61% |
| 12 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 62% |
| 24 mo | UP | 59% | Low | 83% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and Silver, though PCE Price Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2011
$100K invested 2011-03 → today (15.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 44 | 56 | 36 |
| Ferrari 360 | 39 | 70 | 51 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 67 | 56 |
| Ferrari 458 | 45 | 40 | 52 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 2 | 57 | 41 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 77 | 42 |
| Ferrari 488 | 36 | 57 | 45 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 8 | 54 | 44 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-40,100 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$27,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-250,412 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$90,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.