Tracking 41 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 5k mi example, ~$172K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 48 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±66%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 123 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±35%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-09-12
2015 · 18k mi
$88.5K–$198K
$325K
✗
2026-09-04
2017 · 28k mi
$91.6K–$205K
$385K
✗
2026-08-28
2017 · 0k mi
$156K–$348K
$591K
✗
2026-08-18
2017 · 0k mi
$156K–$348K
$549K
✗
2026-08-14
2016 · 10k mi
$110K–$246K
$202K
✓
2026-07-30
2017 · 0k mi
$162K–$362K
$576K
✗
2026-07-28
2013 · 10k mi
$98.0K–$275K
$175K
✓
2026-07-24
2014 · 26k mi
$82.3K–$231K
$180K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2017 · 0k mi
ebay
$139K–$397K ($235K)
open
2015 · 3k mi
classic
$95.4K–$306K ($171K)
open
2015 · 20k mi
classic
$75.2K–$241K ($135K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-11 → today (9.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $182K━ S&P 500 $409K━ Gold $373K━ Luxury $377K━ Housing $183K₿ Bitcoin ×104 (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Dodge Viper (2013-2017) roughly 1.8×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.3× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 56% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (+0%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +6mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +3mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017)┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +12mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
73
Undervaluation
36
Liquidity
43
Speculation Opportunity
37
Depreciation Risk
52
Overvaluation
55
asking +39% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$70,100 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$65,225 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.6)
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
