Fiat 500 (2012-2019)
Flagged undervalued because -28% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 48k mi example, ~$7.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2013 · 27k mi | classic | $4.2K–$13.5K ($7.5K) |
| open | 2015 · 90k mi | classic | $3.3K–$10.5K ($5.8K) |
| open | 2015 · 99k mi | classic | $3.1K–$10.1K ($5.6K) |
| open | 2015 · 99k mi | classic | $3.1K–$10.1K ($5.6K) |
| open | 2015 · 99k mi | classic | $3.1K–$10.1K ($5.6K) |
| open | 2015 · 100k mi | classic | $3.1K–$10.0K ($5.6K) |
| open | 2012 · 100k mi | classic | $3.0K–$9.6K ($5.3K) |
| open | 2014 · 106k mi | classic | $2.9K–$9.4K ($5.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | — |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. WTI Crude Oil has historically led it by about 17 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 5 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and VIX Volatility Index.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-04 → today (10.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 50 | 34 | 49 |
| Nissan 350Z | 47 | 60 | 48 |
| Nissan 370Z | 52 | 56 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 58 | 35 | 49 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 63 | 46 | 54 |
| Porsche 911 (964) | 44 | 43 | 45 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo (964) | 26 | 75 | 22 |
| Porsche 968 | 44 | 55 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,021 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,510 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,510 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,510 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,997 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,510 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.