BMW 1M Coupe (E82)
Given the 'thin' data state, this market outlook for the BMW 1M Coupe (E82) is low-confidence, indicating a downward trend across 6, 12, and 24-month horizons with probabilities ranging from 0.66 to 0.77, suggesting a volatile regime. The model shows high overvaluation at 88.68 despite appreciation momentum at 69.06, with CPI (All Urban Consumers) identified as the strongest leading indicator at a -0.95 correlation with a 17-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 15 yr, 27k mi example, ~$63.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 27 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 92 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 2011 · 13k mi | $45.7K–$102K | $80.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-05 | 2012 · 60k mi | $35.3K–$78.9K | $50.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2011 · 24k mi | $43.5K–$97.3K | $71.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-15 | 2011 · 4k mi | $56.1K–$125K | $92.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2011 · 66k mi | $34.1K–$76.2K | $47.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-03 | 2011 · 34k mi | $40.3K–$90.1K | $57.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2011 · 24k mi | $43.5K–$97.3K | $82.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2011 · 55k mi | $35.9K–$80.2K | $64.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2011 | C&B | $37.2K–$106K ($62.8K) |
| open | 2011 · 29k mi | classic | $38.2K–$107K ($64.1K) |
| open | 2011 · 46k mi | classic | $32.0K–$103K ($57.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 66% | Low | 52% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 70% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 77% | Low | 73% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Silver has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 75% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and Silver, though WTI Crude Oil points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 350Z | 34 | 76 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 24 | 60 |
| Nissan 370Z | 49 | 44 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 52 | 42 | 42 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 37 | 57 | 50 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 49 | 40 | 37 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 44 | 34 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder | 33 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,617 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,617 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,617 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,617 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,617 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,617 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.