Flagged undervalued because -39% vs 3-yr trend, and -27% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 13 yr, 29k mi example, ~$62.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 124 confirmed sales·63 months tracked·since 2021-04·4 active listings
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 83 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-05-20
2011 · 55k mi
$33.3K–$80.3K
$64.0K
✓
2026-05-20
2011 · 65k mi
$31.6K–$76.2K
$61.1K
✓
2026-05-05
2011 · 28k mi
$37.9K–$91.4K
$77.0K
✓
2026-04-13
2011 · 5k mi
$46.7K–$113K
$88.0K
✓
2026-02-19
2011 · 0k mi
$54.7K–$132K
$110K
✓
2025-01-22
2011 · 3k mi
$46.6K–$112K
$86.5K
✓
2025-01-21
2011 · 44k mi
$32.6K–$78.5K
$51.5K
✓
2024-12-26
2011 · 26k mi
$35.8K–$86.3K
$62.0K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2011 · 46k mi
classic
$32.0K–$103K ($57.3K)
open
2011
BaT
$37.9K–$122K ($68.0K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Forecast pendingWe need ~12 months of history to model where this market is headed.
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
—
12 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
—
24 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 28% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and Gold (futures), though U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $95.2K━ S&P 500 $198K━ Gold $257K━ Luxury $88.4K━ Housing $132K₿ Bitcoin $111K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The BMW 1M Coupe (E82) roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 24% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 52% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-28%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 1M Coupe (E82)┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +9mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 1M Coupe (E82)┄ CPI (All Urban Consumers), shifted +17mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 1M Coupe (E82)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +9mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 1M Coupe (E82)┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +17mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 1M Coupe (E82)┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +18mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 1M Coupe (E82)┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +11mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 1M Coupe (E82)┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +7mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 1M Coupe (E82)┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +10mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
34
Undervaluation
50
Liquidity
49
Speculation Opportunity
37
Depreciation Risk
76
Overvaluation
49
asking +23% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.