BMW 1M Coupe (E82)
Given the thin data state, this read for the BMW 1M Coupe (E82) market is low-confidence. Current signals indicate high overvaluation at 77.59, with a likely downward trend across 6, 12, and 24-month horizons, carrying probabilities from 0.78 to 0.92 within a volatile regime. The strongest leading indicator identified is CPI (All Urban Consumers), showing a correlation of -0.95 with a 17-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 13 yr, 28k mi example, ~$63.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 64% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 25 scored forecasts: 64% got the direction right, median value error ±23%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 92 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 2011 · 13k mi | $47.2K–$104K | $80.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-05 | 2012 · 60k mi | $36.7K–$81.1K | $50.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2011 · 24k mi | $45.2K–$99.9K | $71.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-15 | 2011 · 4k mi | $56.7K–$125K | $92.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2011 · 66k mi | $35.4K–$78.2K | $47.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-03 | 2011 · 34k mi | $42.0K–$92.7K | $57.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2011 · 24k mi | $45.2K–$99.9K | $82.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2011 · 55k mi | $37.5K–$82.9K | $64.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2011 · 29k mi | classic | $38.2K–$107K ($64.1K) |
| open | 2011 · 46k mi | classic | $32.0K–$103K ($57.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 78% | Low | 45% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 85% | Low | 64% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 92% | Low | 69% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and Silver.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 350Z | 42 | 66 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 48 | 67 | 50 |
| Nissan 370Z | 54 | 48 | 55 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 34 | 60 | 41 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 45 | 55 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 27 | 53 | 50 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder | 34 | 49 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$28,813 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$28,813 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$28,813 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$26,617 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$26,617 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$26,617 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.