Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman
Flagged undervalued because asking -26% vs historic sold, -31% vs 2-yr avg, sell-through 100%, and -29% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 5k mi example, ~$116K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 71% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 38 scored forecasts: 71% got the direction right, median value error ±8%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 538 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±24%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 2025 · 0k mi | $106K–$254K | $210K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-29 | 2017 · 7k mi | $70.3K–$169K | $63.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2022 · 9k mi | $69.2K–$167K | $136K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-25 | 2024 · 0k mi | $106K–$254K | $230K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | 2017 · 52k mi | $34.6K–$83.4K | $28.4K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2021 · 4k mi | $74.0K–$178K | $86.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2023 · 4k mi | $73.7K–$178K | $197K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2021 · 39k mi | $35.1K–$84.6K | $46.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2021 | BaT | $64.7K–$208K ($116K) |
| open | 2025 | C&B | $64.4K–$207K ($115K) |
| open | 2024 · 9k mi | classic | $63.4K–$203K ($114K) |
| open | 2025 · 0k mi | classic | $96.4K–$309K ($173K) |
| open | 2025 · 0k mi | classic | $96.4K–$309K ($173K) |
| open | 2025 · 0k mi | classic | $96.4K–$309K ($173K) |
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | classic | $83.3K–$267K ($149K) |
| open | 2025 · 3k mi | classic | $72.3K–$232K ($130K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 68% |
| 12 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 71% |
| 24 mo | UP | 62% | Low | 81% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and Ethereum (USD).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-01 → today (6.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 50 | 34 | 49 |
| Nissan 350Z | 47 | 60 | 48 |
| Nissan 370Z | 52 | 56 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 58 | 35 | 49 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 35 | 33 | 39 |
| Porsche 911 (964) | 44 | 43 | 45 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo (964) | 26 | 75 | 22 |
| Porsche 968 | 44 | 55 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,579 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,579 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,579 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,003 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,031 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.