Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman
Backed by a 0.935 data confidence, the Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman market shows an upward trend with a 0.66 probability over 24 months, though within a volatile regime. Appreciation momentum is 47.45, depreciation risk is 42.9, and the strongest leading indicator is the Case-Shiller National Home Price with a 0.84 correlation and 9-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 8k mi example, ~$85.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 66% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 41 scored forecasts: 66% got the direction right, median value error ±7%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 376 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±20%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | 2018 · 15k mi | $46.3K–$103K | $61.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2018 · 32k mi | $34.4K–$76.7K | $46.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-14 | 2019 · 36k mi | $33.3K–$74.4K | $72.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2021 · 15k mi | $41.3K–$117K | $130K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2017 · 30k mi | $34.9K–$77.8K | $58.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | 2024 · 0k mi | $78.4K–$175K | $211K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-03 | 2022 · 10k mi | $57.8K–$129K | $68.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | 2017 · 13k mi | $50.8K–$113K | $56.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2021 · 50k mi | BaT | $27.8K–$79.7K ($47.1K) |
| open | 2025 · 2k mi | BaT | $62.6K–$180K ($106K) |
| open | 2025 | C&B | $50.6K–$145K ($85.8K) |
| open | 2017 · 22k mi | classic | $33.6K–$94.9K ($56.4K) |
| open | 2025 · 0k mi | classic | $68.1K–$192K ($114K) |
| open | 2022 · 7k mi | classic | $51.7K–$146K ($86.9K) |
| open | 2019 · 19k mi | classic | $35.5K–$100K ($59.6K) |
| open | 2023 · 5k mi | classic | $52.4K–$148K ($88.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 62% |
| 12 mo | UP | 60% | Low | 66% |
| 24 mo | UP | 66% | Low | 93% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) and U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 45 | 46 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 54 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 55 | 9 | 55 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 43 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 51 | 50 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 68 | 27 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 43 | 40 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder | 34 | 51 | 40 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-32,400 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,400 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-32,400 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,400 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.