Toyota 4Runner TRD Pro
Flagged undervalued because asking -4% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 6 yr, 52k mi example, ~$40.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 28 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±11%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 112 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±12%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 2016 · 183k mi | $16.8K–$37.0K | $23.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2014 · 87k mi | $21.7K–$47.8K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-11 | 2023 · 10k mi | $32.5K–$71.5K | $54.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-23 | 2024 · 17k mi | $33.3K–$73.4K | $47.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-10 | 2022 · 2k mi | $36.4K–$80.1K | $53.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-09 | 2018 · 132k mi | $18.8K–$41.5K | $26.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-24 | 2020 · 14k mi | $33.6K–$74.0K | $46.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-24 | 2016 · 181k mi | $17.3K–$38.1K | $21.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2022 · 23k mi | classic | $29.2K–$81.9K ($48.9K) |
| open | 2024 · 28k mi | classic | $27.4K–$77.0K ($46.0K) |
| open | 2022 · 73k mi | classic | $21.1K–$59.1K ($35.3K) |
| open | 2019 · 103k mi | classic | $18.0K–$50.4K ($30.1K) |
| open | 2014 · 135k mi | ebay | $16.4K–$46.2K ($27.6K) |
| open | 2018 · 46k mi | classic | $24.4K–$68.4K ($40.8K) |
| open | 2022 · 48k mi | classic | $24.1K–$67.6K ($40.3K) |
| open | 2023 · 49k mi | classic | $24.0K–$67.4K ($40.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 68% |
| 12 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 68% |
| 24 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 50% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.