Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, and sell-through 85%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 32 yr, 14k mi example, ~$7.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 5 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±123%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
52%
Low
82%
12 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
100%
24 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Housing Starts fell 7%. THEREFORE, given its usual 8-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$97) over the next 8 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.61, 28 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 50% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and VIX Volatility Index, though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-01 → today (10.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $110K━ S&P 500 $477K━ Gold $391K━ Luxury $447K━ Housing $192K₿ Bitcoin ×211 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Suzuki GSX-R (Various) roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 22% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 77% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-43%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Suzuki GSX-R (Various)┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +7mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.45). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Suzuki GSX-R (Various)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +18mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
64
Undervaluation
53
Liquidity
62
Speculation Opportunity
46
Depreciation Risk
55
Overvaluation
61
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
+18% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sell-through 85%sell through rate
+46% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -1.7%/momedian sale trend slope
new-listing velocity 13% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.