Subaru Legacy GT spec.B
Flagged undervalued because -56% vs 2-yr avg, -57% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 121k mi example, ~$6.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 38% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 16 scored forecasts: 38% got the direction right, median value error ±221%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 44 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 2009 · 116k mi | $4.0K–$8.9K | $8.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | 2005 · 135k mi | $4.7K–$10.5K | $3.6K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-29 | 2005 · 94k mi | $5.5K–$12.1K | $5.4K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-31 | 2007 · 141k mi | $6.4K–$14.2K | $13.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-10 | 2005 · 57k mi | $8.4K–$18.6K | $10.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-08 | 2005 · 165k mi | $6.6K–$14.7K | $6.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-01-23 | 2005 · 7k mi | $9.2K–$20.3K | $7.1K | ✗ |
| 2025-12-17 | 2009 · 47k mi | $10.0K–$22.1K | $16.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2006 · 125k mi | ebay | $3.1K–$8.8K ($5.2K) |
| open | 2005 · 85k mi | classic | $3.8K–$10.6K ($6.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 38% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Gold (futures) has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Russell 2000 (small cap) and Ethereum (USD), though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 18 | 69 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 44 | 68 | 51 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 26 | 59 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 49 | 43 | 47 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 39 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 34 | 58 | 47 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 46 | 40 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 18 | 40 | 33 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,588 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,588 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.