Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 92k mi example, ~$12.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
54%
Low
40%
12 mo
UP
56%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
59%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 12 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the 10-year Treasury yield rose 9%. THEREFORE, given its usual 12-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$16) over the next 12 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.62, 22 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $61.8K━ S&P 500 $202K━ Gold $235K━ Luxury $80.7K━ Housing $131K₿ Bitcoin $170K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Cadillac STS-V roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 50% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 69% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-53%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +1mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +13mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +3mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +4mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.