Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +5.4%/mo, +35% vs 12-mo avg, and asking trend +0.1%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 92k mi example, ~$12.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
74%
Low
100%
12 mo
UP
82%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
91%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $62.0K━ S&P 500 $200K━ Gold $230K━ Luxury $72.5K━ Housing $132K₿ Bitcoin $208K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Cadillac STS-V roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 50% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 69% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-53%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +1mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +8mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Gold (futures), shifted +16mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Silver leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Silver, shifted +2mo
S&P 500 leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ S&P 500, shifted +8mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac STS-V┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +5mo
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,114 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,388 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,114 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,388 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$9,589 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$9,589 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.