Rivian R1T Quad-Motor / Performance
Flagged undervalued because +4% vs 3-yr trend, and +5% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 18k mi example, ~$57.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 39% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 39% got the direction right, median value error ±24%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 185 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±14%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 2022 · 67k mi | $30.2K–$67.4K | $47.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2023 · 28k mi | $35.6K–$79.6K | $52.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2022 · 57k mi | $30.4K–$68.0K | $46.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2022 · 4k mi | $43.1K–$96.3K | $59.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 2023 · 23k mi | $36.5K–$81.6K | $54.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-08 | 2022 · 19k mi | $37.7K–$84.3K | $55.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-01 | 2022 · 40k mi | $33.2K–$74.2K | $49.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-27 | 2025 · 16k mi | $38.4K–$85.9K | $81.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 7 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2023 · 42k mi | classic | $26.1K–$83.9K ($46.8K) |
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | classic | $38.8K–$124K ($69.5K) |
| open | 2022 · 35k mi | classic | $27.1K–$86.9K ($48.5K) |
| open | 2023 · 36k mi | classic | $26.9K–$86.4K ($48.2K) |
| open | 2023 · 41k mi | classic | $26.3K–$84.4K ($47.1K) |
| open | 2023 · 48k mi | classic | $25.5K–$81.7K ($45.6K) |
| open | 2024 · 21k mi | classic | $29.5K–$94.7K ($52.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | 38% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 39% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 60% | Low | 27% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Core CPI (ex food/energy) has historically led it by about 9 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Core CPI (ex food/energy) and Gold (futures).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-04 → today (4.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.92). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-43,527 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-43,612 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.