Audi R8
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, -23% vs 2-yr avg, -24% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 12 yr, 23k mi example, ~$116K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 34% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 44 scored forecasts: 34% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 493 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 2010 · 9k mi | $80.1K–$176K | $54.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | 2011 · 18k mi | $72.6K–$160K | $140K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2017 · 22k mi | $69.9K–$154K | $154K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2012 · 11k mi | $78.0K–$172K | $92.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | 2012 · 26k mi | $65.1K–$143K | $137K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2012 · 36k mi | $53.1K–$149K | $71.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2012 · 36k mi | $56.8K–$125K | $71.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | 2011 · 34k mi | $58.0K–$128K | $122K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2022 · 2k mi | classic | $94.0K–$264K ($157K) |
| open | 2012 · 7k mi | classic | $82.1K–$231K ($138K) |
| open | 2021 · 8k mi | classic | $81.5K–$229K ($137K) |
| open | 2011 · 12k mi | classic | $78.3K–$220K ($131K) |
| open | 2009 · 17k mi | ebay | $73.9K–$207K ($124K) |
| open | 2018 · 19k mi | classic | $72.8K–$205K ($122K) |
| open | 2012 · 29k mi | classic | $62.7K–$176K ($105K) |
| open | 2017 · 33k mi | classic | $59.2K–$166K ($99.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 48% |
| 12 mo | UP | 47% | Low | 34% |
| 24 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 44% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and WTI Crude Oil.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$108,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-37,040 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$48,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.