Audi R8
Flagged undervalued because -18% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 12 yr, 23k mi example, ~$127K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 33% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 45 scored forecasts: 33% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 511 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±23%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 2018 · 32k mi | $69.6K–$154K | $85.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-05 | 2018 · 25k mi | $78.3K–$173K | $151K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-05 | 2011 · 14k mi | $90.1K–$200K | $83.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-03 | 2011 · 48k mi | $57.8K–$128K | $121K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-30 | 2012 · 44k mi | $55.8K–$123K | $71.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-28 | 2017 · 18k mi | $81.0K–$179K | $141K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2020 · 16k mi | $82.2K–$182K | $122K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-21 | 2014 · 38k mi | $59.1K–$131K | $89.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2011 · 37k mi | ebay | $59.5K–$169K ($100K) |
| open | 2014 · 3k mi | ebay | $96.6K–$275K ($163K) |
| open | 2009 · 17k mi | ebay | $81.4K–$231K ($137K) |
| open | 2014 · 3k mi | ebay | $96.7K–$275K ($163K) |
| open | 2011 · 37k mi | ebay | $60.1K–$170K ($101K) |
| open | 2014 · 3k mi | ebay | $97.1K–$274K ($163K) |
| open | 2020 · 7k mi | BaT | $88.0K–$249K ($148K) |
| open | 2011 · 37k mi | ebay | $60.1K–$170K ($101K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 49% |
| 12 mo | UP | 47% | Low | 33% |
| 24 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 39% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and WTI Crude Oil.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$35,027 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-49,995 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$47,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-49,995 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.