Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, asking -17% vs historic sold, sell-through 97%, and -40% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 14 yr, 30k mi example, ~$92.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 1 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±52%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
69%
Low
71%
12 mo
DOWN
75%
Low
100%
24 mo
DOWN
82%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 5 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 16% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and US Regular Gas Price, though 30-Year Mortgage Rate points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-05 → today (10.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $66.0K━ S&P 500 $420K━ Gold $368K━ Luxury $462K━ Housing $186K₿ Bitcoin ×120 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Audi R8 V10 (Type 42, 2009-2015) roughly 0.7×'d your money (a real 52% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 84% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-64%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Audi R8 V10 (Type 42, 2009-2015)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +23mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Audi R8 V10 (Type 42, 2009-2015)┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +0mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.