Tracking 2 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 3 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 7 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 14 yr, 30k mi example, ~$89.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
$100K invested 2016-05 → today (10.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $67.6K━ S&P 500 $416K━ Gold $360K━ Luxury $415K━ Housing $187K₿ Bitcoin ×146 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Audi R8 V10 (Type 42, 2009-2015) roughly 0.7×'d your money (a real 52% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 84% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-64%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Audi R8 V10 (Type 42, 2009-2015)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +23mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.2)
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=10.0)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-25.3)
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=60.3)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
