Flagged undervalued because inventory -11%, and asking -32% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 12 yr, 33k mi example, ~$97.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
73%
Low
50%
12 mo
DOWN
81%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
88%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Regular Gas Price has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE US Regular Gas Price fell 4%. THEREFORE, given its usual 3-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −19% (≈ −$18,107) over the next 3 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.69, 19 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-05 → today (10.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $71.9K━ S&P 500 $405K━ Gold $338K━ Luxury $469K━ Housing $183K₿ Bitcoin ×112 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Audi R8 V10 (Type 42, 2009-2015) roughly 0.7×'d your money (a real 48% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 82% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-61%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Audi R8 V10 (Type 42, 2009-2015)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +3mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Audi R8 V10 (Type 42, 2009-2015)┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +3mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
52
Undervaluation
94
Liquidity
60
Speculation Opportunity
93
Depreciation Risk
12
Overvaluation
34
inventory -11%inventory trend slope
asking -32% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 97%sell through rate
asking trend -1.4%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices -5.3%/momedian sale trend slope
new-listing velocity 10% of activenew listing velocity
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$34,612 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$34,612 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$108,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.