Tracking 8 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 33 yr, 56k mi example, ~$170K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 16 scored forecasts: 88% got the direction right, median value error ±29%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 41 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±13%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-08-05
1993 · 28k mi
$129K–$288K
$199K
✓
2026-05-30
1994 · 61k mi
$115K–$258K
$180K
✓
2026-04-24
1993 · 36k mi
$127K–$283K
$221K
✓
2026-03-31
1993 · 78k mi
$106K–$238K
$108K
✓
2026-02-28
1993 · 18k mi
$151K–$337K
$331K
✓
2025-10-06
1993 · 25k mi
$153K–$343K
$209K
✓
2025-08-28
1993 · 69k mi
$121K–$270K
$170K
✓
2025-08-28
1993 · 69k mi
$96.1K–$308K
$170K
✓
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-01 → today (9.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $182K━ S&P 500 $392K━ Gold $367K━ Luxury $353K━ Housing $182K₿ Bitcoin ×80 (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Porsche 911 RS America roughly 1.8×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.3× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 54% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (+0%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
S&P 500 leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 RS America┄ S&P 500, shifted +18mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 RS America┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +20mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 RS America┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +9mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 RS America┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +11mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
