Porsche 911 RS America
Flagged undervalued because -99% vs 2-yr avg, -98% vs 3-yr trend, sell-through 99%, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 32 yr, 50k mi example, ~$199K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 66% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 66% got the direction right, median value error ±300%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 45 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 1994 · 61k mi | $116K–$257K | $180K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-24 | 1993 · 36k mi | $123K–$272K | $221K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-31 | 1993 · 78k mi | $106K–$235K | $108K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | 1993 · 18k mi | $146K–$323K | $331K | ✗ |
| 2026-01-29 | 1994 · 16k mi | $152K–$335K | $280K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-29 | 1993 · 50k mi | $128K–$283K | $165K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-29 | 1994 · 43k mi | $130K–$288K | $139K | ✓ |
| 2025-12-05 | 1993 · 32k mi | $140K–$310K | $180K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 4 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1993 · 5k mi | classic | $157K–$440K ($262K) |
| open | 1993 · 72k mi | classic | $103K–$285K ($171K) |
| open | 1993 · 69k mi | classic | $96.1K–$308K ($172K) |
| open | 1993 · 91k mi | classic | $80.0K–$257K ($143K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 66% |
| 12 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 66% |
| 24 mo | UP | 61% | Low | 75% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. S&P 500 has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though PCE Price Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-08 → today (10.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 27 | 59 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z | 42 | 66 | 48 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 48 | 67 | 50 |
| Nissan 370Z | 54 | 48 | 55 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 34 | 60 | 41 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 45 | 55 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 27 | 53 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=31.8)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$33,900 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$33,900 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$33,900 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$33,900 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$33,900 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.