Pontiac G8 GXP
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, -32% vs 2-yr avg, -30% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 15 yr, 46k mi example, ~$23.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 44% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 44% got the direction right, median value error ±39%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 79 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±28%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2009 · 149k mi | $9.7K–$21.4K | $10.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-10 | 2009 · 78k mi | $11.7K–$32.8K | $23.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-10 | 2009 · 78k mi | $13.8K–$30.3K | $23.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2008 · 113k mi | $11.9K–$26.2K | $5.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2009 · 5k mi | $19.2K–$42.4K | $29.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-09 | 2009 · 9k mi | $16.3K–$52.2K | $38.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-09 | 2009 · 9k mi | $20.3K–$44.6K | $38.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-19 | 2009 · 106k mi | $12.2K–$26.9K | $15.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2008 · 163k mi | classic | $8.0K–$22.4K ($13.4K) |
| open | 2009 · 77k mi | ebay | $12.4K–$34.8K ($20.8K) |
| open | 2009 · 115k mi | classic | $10.7K–$30.1K ($17.9K) |
| open | 2009 · 163k mi | classic | $9.0K–$25.2K ($15.1K) |
| open | 2009 · 1k mi | BaT | $20.7K–$58.2K ($34.8K) |
| open | 2009 | C&B | $14.8K–$41.6K ($24.8K) |
| open | 2009 · 10k mi | classic | $18.8K–$52.6K ($31.4K) |
| open | 2009 | classic | $12.5K–$40.0K ($22.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 47% |
| 12 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 44% |
| 24 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 20% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) has historically led it by about 23 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and 2-Year Treasury Yield, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-12 → today (10.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$26,400 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,500 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$26,400 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,500 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.