Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge
Flagged undervalued because asking -14% vs historic sold, +6% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 26 yr, 36k mi example, ~$14.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 51% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 121 scored forecasts: 51% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 515 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±25%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 1997 · 24k mi | $11.1K–$24.8K | $29.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-20 | 1996 · 26k mi | $10.9K–$24.3K | $27.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-19 | 1997 · 17k mi | $11.8K–$26.4K | $19.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2001 · 4k mi | $15.5K–$34.6K | $21.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2001 · 30k mi | $10.5K–$23.4K | $19.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-13 | 2003 · 15k mi | $12.0K–$26.9K | $16.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-12 | 1995 · 103k mi | $5.4K–$12.1K | $5.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | 1998 | $8.5K–$24.1K | $19.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1997 | C&B | $8.6K–$24.5K ($14.5K) |
| open | 2003 · 175k mi | ebay | $3.8K–$10.8K ($6.4K) |
| open | 1998 · 136k mi | ebay | $3.6K–$10.4K ($6.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 8k mi | hemmings | $11.5K–$32.9K ($19.4K) |
| open | 2003 · 111k mi | ebay | $4.4K–$12.5K ($7.4K) |
| open | 1994 · 132k mi | ebay | $3.7K–$10.7K ($6.3K) |
| open | 2003 · 3k mi | ebay | $13.7K–$39.4K ($23.3K) |
| open | 1997 · 15k mi | ebay | $10.3K–$29.5K ($17.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 51% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 50% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 9 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by M2 Money Supply and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-01 → today (14.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,940 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,877 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,250 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.