Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +0.3%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 0k mi example, ~$63.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2025 · 1k mi
classic
$35.8K–$165K ($76.9K)
open
2024 · 10k mi
classic
$31.9K–$148K ($68.7K)
open
2025 · 6k mi
classic
$33.7K–$156K ($72.5K)
open
2025 · 0k mi
classic
$30.7K–$142K ($66.1K)
open
2025 · 1k mi
classic
$35.8K–$166K ($77.0K)
open
2024 · 0k mi
classic
$33.3K–$154K ($71.7K)
open
2024 · 4k mi
classic
$35.8K–$165K ($76.9K)
open
2024 · 1k mi
classic
$34.5K–$160K ($74.2K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
0%
12 mo
UP
54%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
57%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-03 → today (2.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $79.6K━ S&P 500 $149K━ Gold $185K━ Luxury $66.3K━ Housing $104K₿ Bitcoin $83.1K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 26% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 46% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-24%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ VIX Volatility Index, shifted +18mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +2mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +7mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +21mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +12mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +18mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ 2-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +17mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +24mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
42
Undervaluation
38
Liquidity
53
Speculation Opportunity
49
Depreciation Risk
47
Overvaluation
48
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
-50% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +0.3%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend -0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
7% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
45 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 4% of activenew listing velocity
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$23,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-13,971 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$23,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-13,971 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$23,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-13,971 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.