Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 0k mi example, ~$65.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2024 · 0k mi
classic
$30.9K–$141K ($66.2K)
open
2025 · 0k mi
classic
$30.9K–$141K ($66.2K)
open
2025 · 0k mi
classic
$33.4K–$154K ($71.7K)
open
2024
classic
$29.0K–$134K ($62.5K)
open
2024 · 17k mi
classic
$29.5K–$120K ($59.4K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
72%
Low
75%
12 mo
UP
80%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
88%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-03 → today (2.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $80.3K━ S&P 500 $153K━ Gold $190K━ Luxury $52.0K━ Housing $106K₿ Bitcoin $121K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 25% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 47% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-25%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +9mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +7mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +0mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +18mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +11mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +18mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +6mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang S650 Dark Horse┄ Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), shifted +8mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
65
Undervaluation
41
Liquidity
40
Speculation Opportunity
72
Depreciation Risk
30
Overvaluation
40
sell-through 38%sell through rate
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
sale prices +5.5%/momedian sale trend slope
44 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 1% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-16,677 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,661 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.