Flagged undervalued because asking -1% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 37 yr, 32k mi example, ~$23.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 512 confirmed sales·170 months tracked·since 2012-05·8 active listings
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
49%
Low
51%
12 mo
UP
50%
Low
54%
24 mo
UP
50%
Low
41%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 3%. THEREFORE, given its usual 2-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$351) over the next 2 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.46, 23 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 77% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Real Disposable Income per Capita, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-05 → today (14.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $370K━ S&P 500 $740K━ Gold $291K━ Luxury $715K━ Housing $234K
A genuinely strong investment. The Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z roughly 3.7×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 2.5× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 50% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+58%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +2mo
Housing Starts leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.44). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z┄ Housing Starts, shifted +2mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +7mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +11mo
Housing Starts leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.40). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z┄ Housing Starts, shifted +18mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.40). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +5mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.40). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z┄ Initial Jobless Claims, shifted +1mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.38). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +21mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
34
Undervaluation
37
Liquidity
27
Speculation Opportunity
34
Depreciation Risk
64
Overvaluation
55
sell-through 83%sell through rate
asking -1% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.