Ford Mustang Fox Body SVT Cobra
Given the thin data state, this read carries low confidence for the Ford Mustang Fox Body SVT Cobra market. Signals indicate high depreciation risk at 72.08 and an elevated overvaluation score of 62.6, with forecasts suggesting a downward trend for 6, 12, and 24 months, carrying probabilities of 0.58, 0.61, and 0.64 respectively, all within a volatile regime. The strongest leading indicator is the High-Yield Bond Spread, correlated at -0.91 with a 23-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 32 yr, 15k mi example, ~$68.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 65% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 46 scored forecasts: 65% got the direction right, median value error ±24%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 98 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 1993 · 76k mi | $26.5K–$83.5K | $22.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | 1993 · 43k mi | $29.6K–$93.4K | $60.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 1993 · 30k mi | $31.6K–$99.5K | $70.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1993 · 58k mi | $27.0K–$85.3K | $43.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-08 | 1993 · 14k mi | $36.9K–$116K | $64.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-16 | 1993 · 160k mi | $12.4K–$39.1K | $2.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-08 | 1993 · 6k mi | $41.1K–$130K | $71.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-03 | 1993 · 32k mi | $31.1K–$98.0K | $46.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1993 | C&B | $30.3K–$143K ($65.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 61% | Low | 65% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 64% | Low | 82% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and US Regular Gas Price, though LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-09 → today (12.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-94,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,495 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-94,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,495 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-94,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,495 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.