Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +4.2%/mo, and +58% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 54 yr, 56k mi example, ~$46.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 82 confirmed sales·163 months tracked·since 2012-12·2 active listings
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 4 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±59%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
44%
Low
60%
12 mo
UP
60%
Low
50%
24 mo
UP
64%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the 10-year Treasury yield rose 2%. THEREFORE, given its usual 2-month head start, we expect little change — about +0% (≈ +$111) over the next 2 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.57, 27 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 29% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and US Metro Mean Temperature, though Case-Shiller Home Price points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-12 → today (13.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $91.6K━ S&P 500 $673K━ Gold $271K━ Luxury $551K━ Housing $229K
Lost ground to inflation. The Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) SS roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 36% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 86% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-60%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) SS┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +18mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) SS┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +3mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) SS┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +22mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.