Ford Mustang Fox Body
Flagged undervalued because asking -8% vs historic sold, -35% vs 2-yr avg, and -34% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 36 yr, 37k mi example, ~$17.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 56% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 111 scored forecasts: 56% got the direction right, median value error ±30%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 930 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 1992 · 10k mi | $16.4K–$36.0K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 1986 · 39k mi | $12.1K–$26.7K | $33.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | 1993 · 58k mi | $10.7K–$23.6K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 1989 · 10k mi | $16.4K–$36.0K | $36.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | 1992 · 83k mi | $10.3K–$22.7K | $26.9K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | 1990 · 28k mi | $13.2K–$29.1K | $24.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 1988 · 58k mi | $10.7K–$23.7K | $18.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 1990 · 58k mi | $10.8K–$23.7K | $10.0K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1987 · 23k mi | classic | $11.6K–$32.7K ($19.5K) |
| open | 1990 · 136k mi | ebay | $9.8K–$27.5K ($16.4K) |
| open | 1990 · 56k mi | ebay | $9.1K–$25.6K ($15.3K) |
| open | 1987 · 65k mi | ebay | $8.7K–$24.6K ($14.7K) |
| open | 1987 · 68k mi | classic | $8.7K–$24.5K ($14.6K) |
| open | 1991 · 83k mi | classic | $8.6K–$24.1K ($14.4K) |
| open | 1988 · 1000k mi | ebay | $5.3K–$15.0K ($8.9K) |
| open | 1991 · 69k mi | classic | $8.7K–$24.4K ($14.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 56% |
| 24 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 61% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2011
$100K invested 2011-03 → today (15.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,100 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,915 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,490 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.