Mercury Marauder
Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, and asking -3% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 53k mi example, ~$20.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 30 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±43%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 64 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±18%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 2003 · 90k mi | $10.9K–$24.1K | $11.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | 2003 · 58k mi | $12.7K–$27.9K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2003 · 137k mi | $8.8K–$19.3K | $16.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2003 · 115k mi | $10.0K–$22.1K | $13.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2004 · 21k mi | $17.9K–$39.5K | $30.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-04 | 2004 · 32k mi | $16.4K–$36.1K | $35.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | 2004 · 117k mi | $9.7K–$21.3K | $15.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-13 | 2003 · 61k mi | $12.1K–$26.6K | $18.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2003 · 95k mi | classic | $9.4K–$26.4K ($15.8K) |
| open | 2003 · 4k mi | ebay | $19.3K–$54.1K ($32.3K) |
| open | 2003 | hagerty | $12.4K–$34.8K ($20.8K) |
| open | 2003 · 90k mi | BaT | $10.1K–$28.2K ($16.9K) |
| open | 2003 · 91k mi | classic | $8.6K–$27.7K ($15.5K) |
| open | 2003 · 82k mi | classic | $9.0K–$28.8K ($16.1K) |
| open | 2004 · 19k mi | classic | $13.4K–$43.0K ($24.0K) |
| open | 2003 · 70k mi | classic | $9.5K–$30.6K ($17.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 43% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 28% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Regular Gas Price has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by US Regular Gas Price and Initial Jobless Claims.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-01 → today (11.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.3)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.