Mercury Marauder
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 91%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 52k mi example, ~$19.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 34% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 34% got the direction right, median value error ±44%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 69 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±16%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 2003 · 67k mi | $11.2K–$25.1K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-24 | 2003 · 138k mi | $8.8K–$19.6K | $12.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-21 | 2003 · 16k mi | $17.2K–$38.4K | $30.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-20 | 2004 · 55k mi | $12.5K–$27.9K | $18.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-11 | 2004 · 8k mi | $18.2K–$40.7K | $30.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | 2003 · 90k mi | $10.7K–$24.0K | $11.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | 2003 · 58k mi | $12.6K–$28.1K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2003 · 137k mi | $9.3K–$20.9K | $16.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2004 · 124k mi | ebay | $8.0K–$23.0K ($13.6K) |
| open | 2003 | C&B | $11.5K–$33.0K ($19.5K) |
| open | 2004 · 124k mi | ebay | $8.0K–$22.8K ($13.5K) |
| open | 2003 · 82k mi | classic | $9.0K–$28.8K ($16.1K) |
| open | 2003 · 82k mi | classic | $9.0K–$28.8K ($16.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 55% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 34% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 25% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Regular Gas Price has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by US Regular Gas Price and Initial Jobless Claims.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-01 → today (11.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.2)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.