Mercedes-Benz S65 AMG (V12 biturbo)
Flagged undervalued because -25% vs 2-yr avg, -26% vs 3-yr trend, and asking +7% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 14 yr, 53k mi example, ~$58.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 39% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 38 scored forecasts: 39% got the direction right, median value error ±22%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 133 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 2008 · 71k mi | $28.2K–$62.0K | $22.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-03 | 2017 · 31k mi | $42.1K–$92.8K | $89.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-14 | 2015 · 40k mi | $35.8K–$78.7K | $76.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-09 | 2015 · 93k mi | $19.8K–$63.6K | $44.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-25 | 2020 · 8k mi | $44.7K–$98.4K | $200K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | 2010 · 55k mi | $25.5K–$56.1K | $36.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-08 | 2016 · 17k mi | $43.5K–$95.7K | $95.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-06 | 2015 · 53k mi | $26.1K–$57.4K | $71.9K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2015 · 76k mi | classic | $20.5K–$66.0K ($36.8K) |
| open | 2007 · 81k mi | classic | $20.3K–$65.2K ($36.4K) |
| open | 2020 · 53k mi | classic | $28.2K–$90.6K ($50.6K) |
| open | 2015 · 77k mi | classic | $23.4K–$75.1K ($41.9K) |
| open | 2016 · 12k mi | classic | $48.1K–$154K ($86.2K) |
| open | 2018 · 62k mi | classic | $24.8K–$79.7K ($44.5K) |
| open | 2019 · 18k mi | classic | $43.4K–$139K ($77.8K) |
| open | 2018 · 4k mi | classic | $42.2K–$136K ($75.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 47% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 39% |
| 24 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 46% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Silver has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and WTI Crude Oil.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,898 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$13,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,898 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.