Mercedes-Benz S55 AMG (W220)
Flagged undervalued because -43% vs 2-yr avg, -42% vs 3-yr trend, sell-through 94%, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 80k mi example, ~$14.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 51% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 51% got the direction right, median value error ±54%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 74 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | 2001 · 79k mi | $8.7K–$19.3K | $9.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-18 | 2006 · 105k mi | $7.2K–$15.8K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2005 · 44k mi | $10.4K–$23.0K | $17.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-05 | 2006 · 105k mi | $6.9K–$15.4K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-16 | 2006 · 84k mi | $7.3K–$16.2K | $14.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-31 | 2005 · 46k mi | $9.9K–$21.9K | $19.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-15 | 2004 · 80k mi | $7.7K–$17.0K | $12.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-13 | 2002 · 113k mi | $6.6K–$14.6K | $3.8K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2003 · 168k mi | ebay | $5.9K–$16.7K ($9.9K) |
| open | 2004 · 91k mi | classic | $7.3K–$20.4K ($12.2K) |
| open | 2002 · 140k mi | classic | $5.0K–$16.2K ($9.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 49% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 51% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 48% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 26% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and Nasdaq Composite, though Nasdaq Composite points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-18.8)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-9.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=10.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=34.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.7)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.