Mercedes-Benz E63 AMG (W211, M156)
Flagged undervalued because asking -16% vs historic sold, and sell-through 93%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 85k mi example, ~$21.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 34 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±31%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 92 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±30%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 2008 · 133k mi | $9.5K–$21.0K | $12.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2007 · 146k mi | $9.2K–$20.4K | $61.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2007 · 51k mi | $16.6K–$36.8K | $24.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2007 · 88k mi | $13.3K–$29.5K | $16.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2008 · 36k mi | $16.4K–$36.4K | $54.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-04 | 2007 · 85k mi | $13.9K–$30.8K | $12.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-29 | 2007 · 99k mi | $11.3K–$25.1K | $19.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-27 | 2008 · 17k mi | $13.6K–$43.6K | $30.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2007 · 147k mi | ebay | $7.9K–$22.5K ($13.3K) |
| open | 2007 · 99k mi | classic | $10.3K–$29.2K ($17.4K) |
| open | 2008 · 85k mi | classic | $12.0K–$33.1K ($19.9K) |
| open | 2008 · 124k mi | ebay | $8.3K–$26.7K ($14.9K) |
| open | 2009 · 14k mi | classic | $14.2K–$45.5K ($25.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 60% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 50% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 68% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) and Case-Shiller Home Price.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-11 → today (7.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-41.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-30.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=30.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=31.5)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.