Mercedes-Benz C63 AMG / C63 S (W205)
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, and asking +0% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 8 yr, 24k mi example, ~$46.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 6 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 35 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±18%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 2015 · 18k mi | $32.1K–$71.1K | $79.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-08 | 2017 · 8k mi | $34.7K–$76.7K | $51.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2016 · 85k mi | $23.4K–$51.7K | $40.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | 2019 · 60k mi | $26.3K–$58.2K | $44.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-23 | 2019 · 24k mi | $30.5K–$67.6K | $41.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-15 | 2018 · 23k mi | $30.7K–$67.9K | $54.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | 2020 · 3k mi | $37.6K–$83.2K | $50.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | 2020 · 3k mi | $30.7K–$98.4K | $50.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.4K–$72.1K ($42.8K) |
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.3K–$72.0K ($42.7K) |
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.3K–$72.0K ($42.7K) |
| open | 2019 · 17k mi | classic | $28.9K–$81.7K ($48.6K) |
| open | 2021 · 21k mi | classic | $28.5K–$80.3K ($47.8K) |
| open | 2020 · 33k mi | classic | $27.2K–$76.8K ($45.7K) |
| open | 2020 · 41k mi | classic | $26.2K–$73.9K ($44.0K) |
| open | 2019 · 41k mi | classic | $26.2K–$73.8K ($43.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 54% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Metro Mean Temperature has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-03 → today (4.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 18 | 69 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 44 | 68 | 51 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 26 | 59 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 49 | 43 | 47 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 39 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 34 | 58 | 47 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 46 | 40 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 18 | 40 | 33 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,184 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-10,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,184 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-10,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,184 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.