Mercedes-Benz C63 AMG / C63 S (W205)
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 8 yr, 27k mi example, ~$45.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 5 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 33 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 2016 · 85k mi | $23.3K–$51.4K | $40.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | 2019 · 60k mi | $26.5K–$58.3K | $44.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-23 | 2019 · 24k mi | $30.5K–$67.2K | $41.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-15 | 2018 · 23k mi | $30.7K–$67.5K | $54.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | 2020 · 3k mi | $37.8K–$83.1K | $50.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | 2020 · 3k mi | $30.7K–$98.4K | $50.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-05 | 2019 · 18k mi | $32.9K–$72.5K | $53.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-02 | 2019 · 69k mi | $26.3K–$57.8K | $35.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.2K–$70.9K ($42.3K) |
| open | 2018 · 50k mi | ebay | $24.9K–$70.0K ($41.8K) |
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.3K–$71.0K ($42.4K) |
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.3K–$71.0K ($42.4K) |
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.3K–$71.0K ($42.4K) |
| open | 2018 · 50k mi | ebay | $25.0K–$70.1K ($41.8K) |
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.3K–$70.9K ($42.3K) |
| open | 2017 · 48k mi | ebay | $25.2K–$70.8K ($42.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 54% | Low | 55% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 45% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and PCE Price Index, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-03 → today (4.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,509 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-30,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,184 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-30,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,184 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-30,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.