Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 75k mi example, ~$11.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 5 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±257%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2003 · 60k mi
classic
$5.2K–$16.7K ($9.3K)
open
2002 · 168k mi
classic
$3.0K–$9.8K ($5.5K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
41%
Low
91%
12 mo
DOWN
36%
Low
100%
24 mo
UP
69%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 55% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though Bitcoin (USD) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $90.3K━ S&P 500 $177K━ Gold $230K━ Luxury $83.1K━ Housing $121K₿ Bitcoin $96.7K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Mercedes-Benz C32 AMG (W203) roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 25% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 49% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-25%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz C32 AMG (W203)┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +9mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz C32 AMG (W203)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +12mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
95
Undervaluation
1
Liquidity
70
Speculation Opportunity
88
Depreciation Risk
18
Overvaluation
97
+425% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
+243% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +4.8%/momedian sale trend slope
1 days on marketmedian days on market
0% relistedlisting reappearance rate
new-listing velocity 7% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.