Tracking 0 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 5 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 9 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 34 yr, 92k mi example, ~$17.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 19 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±100%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 39 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±46%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2025-08-24
1990 · 197k mi
$12.7K–$28.4K
$8.8K
✗
2025-08-24
1990 · 161k mi
$12.8K–$28.6K
$2.6K
✗
2024-05-10
1990 · 103k mi
$19.2K–$42.8K
$32.6K
✓
2024-03-13
1990 · 92k mi
$18.9K–$42.2K
$20.0K
✓
2024-03-02
1982 · 58k mi
$22.6K–$50.5K
$13.5K
✗
2024-03-01
1990 · 39k mi
$40.7K–$90.7K
$583K
✗
2023-12-19
1988 · 116k mi
$15.7K–$35.1K
$16.8K
✓
2023-12-16
1989 · 86k mi
$18.7K–$41.7K
$34.2K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1985 · 71k mi
ebay
$9.9K–$28.4K ($16.8K)
open
1983 · 68k mi
classic
$13.5K–$37.8K ($22.6K)
open
1991 · 138k mi
classic
$8.9K–$25.0K ($14.9K)
open
1987 · 136k mi
classic
$9.1K–$29.3K ($16.4K)
open
1987 · 85k mi
classic
$12.8K–$41.0K ($22.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Metro Mean Temperature has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE US Metro Mean Temperature rose 18%. THEREFORE, given its usual 24-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$49) over the next 24 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.77, 21 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-03 → today (7.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $17.1K━ S&P 500 $310K━ Gold $326K━ Luxury $154K━ Housing $164K₿ Bitcoin ×21 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Mercedes-Benz SEC (C126) roughly 0.2×'d your money (a real 87% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 94% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-90%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz SEC (C126)┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +24mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz SEC (C126)┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +19mo
Silver leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz SEC (C126)┄ Silver, shifted +15mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz SEC (C126)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +1mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
