Tracking 1 sale in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 4 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 8 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 46 yr, 53k mi example, ~$46.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 49% got the direction right, median value error ±54%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1980 · 57k mi
BaT
$23.9K–$66.9K ($39.9K)
open
1974 · 18k mi
classic
$23.9K–$76.8K ($42.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 13 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE consumer sentiment fell 14%. THEREFORE, given its usual 13-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$1,109) over the next 13 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.50, 40 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-02 → today (20.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $100K━ S&P 500 $827K━ Gold $731K━ Luxury $1433K━ Housing $182K
Lost ground to inflation. The Maserati Merak roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 40% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 88% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-45%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Maserati Merak┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +23mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Maserati Merak┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +13mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Maserati Merak┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +15mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Maserati Merak┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +9mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Maserati Merak┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +14mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Maserati Merak┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +12mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Maserati Merak┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +21mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Maserati Merak┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +24mo
Why We Think This
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
sell-through 100%sell through rate
asking +14% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
