Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, -25% vs 3-yr trend, and -11% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 16 yr, 82k mi example, ~$11.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 17 scored forecasts: 47% got the direction right, median value error ±45%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
53%
Low
65%
12 mo
DOWN
53%
Low
47%
24 mo
DOWN
54%
Low
20%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. CPI (All Urban Consumers) has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE CPI (All Urban Consumers) held roughly flat. THEREFORE, given its usual 3-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$46) over the next 3 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.69, 27 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by CPI (All Urban Consumers) and Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), though Bitcoin (USD) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-04 → today (9.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $93.7K━ S&P 500 $380K━ Gold $345K━ Luxury $276K━ Housing $179K₿ Bitcoin ×58 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Mazdaspeed 3 roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 32% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 75% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-48%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mazdaspeed 3┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +0mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mazdaspeed 3┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +4mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mazdaspeed 3┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +6mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mazdaspeed 3┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +4mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mazdaspeed 3┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +1mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
57
Undervaluation
74
Liquidity
38
Speculation Opportunity
61
Depreciation Risk
53
Overvaluation
41
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
-25% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
-11% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
asking trend +0.3%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices -1.0%/momedian sale trend slope
26% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 2% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.