Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 4k mi example, ~$29.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2024 · 3k mi
classic
$20.5K–$57.8K ($34.4K)
open
2023 · 10k mi
classic
$18.3K–$51.5K ($30.7K)
open
2023 · 14k mi
classic
$17.6K–$49.5K ($29.5K)
open
2024 · 16k mi
classic
$17.4K–$49.1K ($29.2K)
open
2023 · 26k mi
classic
$17.0K–$47.9K ($28.5K)
open
2022 · 72k mi
classic
$14.6K–$41.1K ($24.5K)
open
2025 · 8k mi
classic
$18.6K–$52.3K ($31.2K)
open
2025 · 8k mi
classic
$18.5K–$52.0K ($31.0K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
50%
Low
75%
12 mo
UP
54%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
58%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 19 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE consumer sentiment fell 31%. THEREFORE, given its usual 19-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$706) over the next 19 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.72, 19 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-07 → today (3.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $103K━ S&P 500 $178K━ Gold $227K━ Luxury $64.7K━ Housing $108K₿ Bitcoin $217K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Toyota GR86 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 5% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 42% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-4%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +19mo
S&P 500 leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ S&P 500, shifted +9mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +9mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +9mo
Housing Starts leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Housing Starts, shifted +17mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), shifted +20mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +17mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +20mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
54
Undervaluation
52
Liquidity
62
Speculation Opportunity
55
Depreciation Risk
42
Overvaluation
35
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
sale prices +0.3%/momedian sale trend slope
-4% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
28 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 9% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,197 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,990 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.