Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +0.3%/mo, -5% vs 12-mo avg, and asking trend +0.0%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 4k mi example, ~$28.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2024 · 6k mi
classic
$16.7K–$53.7K ($30.0K)
open
2025 · 14k mi
classic
$15.1K–$48.6K ($27.1K)
open
2022 · 16k mi
classic
$14.9K–$47.9K ($26.7K)
open
2025 · 5k mi
classic
$16.8K–$53.9K ($30.1K)
open
2023 · 11k mi
classic
$15.6K–$50.0K ($27.9K)
open
2023 · 13k mi
classic
$14.1K–$45.4K ($25.3K)
open
2023 · 42k mi
classic
$13.3K–$42.7K ($23.8K)
open
2023 · 48k mi
classic
$13.1K–$42.1K ($23.5K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
67%
12 mo
UP
55%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
59%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 19 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE consumer sentiment fell 36%. THEREFORE, given its usual 19-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −3% (≈ −$843) over the next 19 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.69, 18 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-07 → today (3.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $97.5K━ S&P 500 $172K━ Gold $208K━ Luxury $65.8K━ Housing $106K₿ Bitcoin $203K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Toyota GR86 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 11% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 43% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-8%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +19mo
Housing Starts leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Housing Starts, shifted +17mo
S&P 500 leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ S&P 500, shifted +9mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +9mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ 2-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +4mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), shifted +20mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ 2-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +3mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +16mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
54
Undervaluation
41
Liquidity
63
Speculation Opportunity
50
Depreciation Risk
45
Overvaluation
35
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
sale prices +0.3%/momedian sale trend slope
-5% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
24 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 7% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,763 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,992 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.