Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 6k mi example, ~$31.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2024 · 3k mi
classic
$20.5K–$57.8K ($34.4K)
open
2023 · 14k mi
classic
$17.6K–$49.5K ($29.5K)
open
2024 · 16k mi
classic
$17.4K–$49.1K ($29.2K)
open
2022 · 72k mi
classic
$14.6K–$41.1K ($24.5K)
open
2023 · 12k mi
classic
$17.8K–$50.1K ($29.9K)
open
2023 · 13k mi
classic
$17.5K–$49.3K ($29.4K)
open
2024 · 15k mi
classic
$17.3K–$48.7K ($29.0K)
open
2024 · 17k mi
classic
$17.1K–$47.9K ($28.6K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
58%
Low
60%
12 mo
UP
64%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
72%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 19 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE consumer sentiment fell 28%. THEREFORE, given its usual 19-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$269) over the next 19 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.75, 20 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-07 → today (3.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $110K━ S&P 500 $177K━ Gold $222K━ Luxury $58.2K━ Housing $109K₿ Bitcoin $266K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Toyota GR86 roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 37% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+2%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +16mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +19mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +13mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +9mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Gold (futures), shifted +23mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +9mo
S&P 500 leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ S&P 500, shifted +9mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota GR86┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +19mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
49
Undervaluation
50
Liquidity
59
Speculation Opportunity
52
Depreciation Risk
44
Overvaluation
33
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
asking trend -0.0%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices +0.8%/momedian sale trend slope
+2% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
32 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 7% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.