Toyota GR Corolla

GR COROLLA CARSTOCKSPECIALTY
$36.9K ▲ $59 (+0.2%)12 mo
WATCHSupported but limited value · momentum cooling — but volatile.
Supported (limited) · 12 sold + 967 active
Fair value$36.9K ($32.5K–$41.4K)
Typical ask$39.2K
Recent sold$36.6K
Current valueModerate
12-mo trendSlightly down · 4-in-10 up
Buyer: Anchor offers to recent sold comps ($37k).
Seller: Price near recent sold comps ($37k); expect negotiation.
Watcher: Volatile — wait for a clearer trend.
💰 Pricing your car to sell
Quick sale$32.5Ksells fast
Fair$36.6Krecent comps
List$39.2Kroom to negotiate
Stretch$42.5Kexceptional
🎯 Buying guide
Strong deal below $32.5K · Fair $32.5K–$41.4K · careful above $42.5K

Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%.

What It's Actually Worth

Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 1k mi example, ~$36.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.

2023-03 2026-07 $70.2K $31.7K
━ blended true value ● confirmed auction sales (dot size = volume)
◫ 41 confirmed sales (40 auction · 1 other)·66 sales tracked·41 months tracked·since 2023-03·1666 active listings

Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10

We replayed 37 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±12%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.

SoldCarOur rangeHammer
2026-06-08 2023 · 28k mi $24.0K–$52.9K $37.3K
2026-05-22 2023 · 1k mi $27.8K–$61.1K $47.0K
2026-05-22 2023 · 21k mi $23.7K–$52.1K $30.0K
2026-05-14 2023 · 11k mi $23.3K–$51.3K $36.0K
2026-05-04 2024 · 5k mi $25.5K–$56.1K $38.0K
2026-04-29 2024 · 9k mi $23.5K–$51.8K $33.8K
2026-04-29 2024 · 9k mi $19.5K–$62.7K $33.8K
2026-04-06 2023 · 0k mi $23.0K–$73.8K $51.0K

Live now — calling it before the gavel

We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.

ClosesCarSourceOur predicted range
open 2023 · 19k mi classic $22.0K–$61.7K ($36.8K)
open 2024 · 40k mi classic $21.4K–$60.0K ($35.8K)
open 2024 C&B $22.0K–$61.8K ($36.9K)
open 2023 · 36k mi classic $21.4K–$60.0K ($35.8K)
open 2023 · 65k mi classic $18.6K–$52.2K ($31.1K)
open 2023 · 0k mi classic $26.0K–$71.9K ($43.2K)
open 2023 · 2k mi classic $24.3K–$67.3K ($40.5K)
open 2024 · 21k mi classic $22.0K–$60.8K ($36.6K)

No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Where We Think It's Headed

Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).

2023-03 now +24mo $119K $4.6K
HorizonDirectionProbabilityConfidencePast accuracy
6 mo DOWN 56% Low 17%
12 mo DOWN 58% Low
24 mo DOWN 61% Low

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Lead Indicator Forecast

Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.

$38.6K now +6mo 2023-03 $42.4K $35.1K
BECAUSE Housing Starts fell 11%. THEREFORE, given its usual 6-month head start, we lean UP — about +4% (≈ +$1,638) over the next 6 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.73, 21 months overlap).

If You’d Bought in 2023

$100K invested 2023-03 → today (3.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).

$93.0K$193K$208K$67.6K$111K 2023 2026 266 100
━ This car $93.0K━ S&P 500 $193K━ Gold $208K━ Luxury $67.6K━ Housing $111K₿ Bitcoin $208K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Toyota GR Corolla roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 16% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 52% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-16%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
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What This Market Follows

Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.

Housing Starts leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.

━ Toyota GR Corolla ┄ Housing Starts, shifted +6mo
2023-03 2026-07

Why We Think This

Appreciation Momentum
57
Undervaluation
50
Liquidity
62
Speculation Opportunity
55
Depreciation Risk
43
Overvaluation
48
inventory -0% inventory trend slope
+4% vs 2-yr avg pct vs trailing 24mo
+15% vs 12-mo avg pct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -0.7%/mo median sale trend slope
26 days on market median days on market
new-listing velocity 7% of active new listing velocity
8% of listings cutting price price drop frequency

Current Inventory Snapshot

Active priced listings1666
Median fair value$34,665
Avg deal score51/100

Comparable Markets

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Alfa Romeo 4C 564546
Fiat 500 (2012-2019) 366342
Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman 544754
Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 225348

Recent Signals & Alerts

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.