Toyota GR Corolla
Flagged undervalued because -21% vs 2-yr avg, sell-through 94%, and asking -1% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 2k mi example, ~$38.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 100% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 2 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±16%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 41 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±12%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 2024 · 38k mi | $24.9K–$55.7K | $35.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-03 | 2024 · 96k mi | $18.5K–$41.4K | $20.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-18 | 2023 · 28k mi | $25.7K–$57.4K | $38.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-07 | 2024 · 21k mi | $25.9K–$57.9K | $32.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | 2023 · 28k mi | $25.8K–$57.6K | $37.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2023 · 1k mi | $31.1K–$69.6K | $47.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2023 · 21k mi | $26.1K–$58.3K | $30.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2023 · 11k mi | $26.1K–$58.4K | $36.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2025 · 7k mi | ebay | $22.5K–$64.1K ($38.0K) |
| open | 2023 · 1k mi | classic | $25.2K–$71.0K ($42.3K) |
| open | 2023 · 65k mi | classic | $18.6K–$52.2K ($31.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 74% | Low | 63% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 80% | Low | 100% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 88% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 27% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Gold (futures), though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-03 → today (3.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.8)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,199 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.5)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-11.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.