Toyota GR Corolla
Showing appreciation momentum: +20% vs 12-mo avg, and asking trend +0.0%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 5k mi example, ~$35.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 0% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 1 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±39%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 40 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±9%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 2024 · 96k mi | $17.1K–$37.9K | $20.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-18 | 2023 · 28k mi | $23.5K–$52.0K | $38.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-07 | 2024 · 21k mi | $23.7K–$52.6K | $32.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | 2023 · 28k mi | $23.1K–$51.2K | $37.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2023 · 1k mi | $29.0K–$64.2K | $47.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2023 · 21k mi | $22.9K–$50.6K | $30.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2023 · 11k mi | $23.0K–$51.0K | $36.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-04 | 2024 · 5k mi | $25.3K–$56.0K | $38.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2024 · 52k mi | classic | $19.0K–$53.7K ($32.0K) |
| open | 2023 · 1k mi | classic | $25.2K–$71.0K ($42.3K) |
| open | 2023 · 29k mi | classic | $21.0K–$59.3K ($35.3K) |
| open | 2024 · 39k mi | classic | $21.5K–$60.4K ($36.1K) |
| open | 2023 · 19k mi | classic | $22.0K–$61.7K ($36.8K) |
| open | 2023 · 36k mi | classic | $21.4K–$60.0K ($35.8K) |
| open | 2023 · 65k mi | classic | $18.6K–$52.2K ($31.1K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | classic | $24.3K–$67.3K ($40.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 66% | Low | 29% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 70% | Low | 0% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 76% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-03 → today (3.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,995 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.