BMW M3 (G80)
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 14k mi example, ~$70.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 9 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±21%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 58 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 2024 · 14k mi | $48.4K–$107K | $87.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2023 · 13k mi | $48.9K–$108K | $74.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | 2023 · 42k mi | $42.0K–$93.0K | $78.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2023 · 25k mi | $44.9K–$99.3K | $63.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-11 | 2024 · 10k mi | $51.2K–$113K | $91.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 | 2023 · 12k mi | $50.6K–$112K | $106K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-16 | 2024 · 26k mi | $45.6K–$101K | $100K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-15 | 2023 · 37k mi | $33.8K–$108K | $62.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2023 | C&B | $41.9K–$119K ($70.6K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | classic | $53.6K–$151K ($90.1K) |
| open | 2024 · 3k mi | classic | $52.1K–$147K ($87.5K) |
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | classic | $46.5K–$131K ($78.2K) |
| open | 2023 · 12k mi | classic | $43.4K–$122K ($72.9K) |
| open | 2023 · 13k mi | classic | $42.7K–$120K ($71.7K) |
| open | 2024 · 14k mi | classic | $42.4K–$120K ($71.2K) |
| open | 2024 · 17k mi | classic | $41.5K–$117K ($69.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 47% | Low | 73% |
| 12 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | UP | 48% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Russell 2000 (small cap) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 25% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Dow Jones Industrial and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-06 → today (4.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$18,900 vs prior
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=10.1)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$18,900 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-14.2)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.