BMW M3 (G80)
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, sell-through 100%, and asking +7% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 14k mi example, ~$69.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 75% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 8 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±20%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 56 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 2023 · 42k mi | $42.1K–$92.6K | $78.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2023 · 25k mi | $44.9K–$98.8K | $63.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-11 | 2024 · 10k mi | $50.7K–$112K | $91.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-28 | 2023 · 12k mi | $49.9K–$110K | $106K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-16 | 2024 · 26k mi | $45.4K–$100.0K | $100K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-15 | 2023 · 37k mi | $33.8K–$108K | $62.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-15 | 2023 · 37k mi | $43.3K–$95.2K | $62.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-09 | 2022 · 21k mi | $46.7K–$103K | $57.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2023 · 22k mi | ebay | $40.3K–$113K ($67.6K) |
| open | 2024 | C&B | $41.4K–$116K ($69.4K) |
| open | 2023 · 22k mi | ebay | $40.4K–$113K ($67.7K) |
| open | 2022 | C&B | $41.5K–$116K ($69.5K) |
| open | 2023 | C&B | $41.5K–$116K ($69.5K) |
| open | 2023 · 22k mi | ebay | $40.5K–$114K ($67.8K) |
| open | 2024 · 12k mi | classic | $38.8K–$125K ($69.6K) |
| open | 2023 · 15k mi | classic | $37.6K–$121K ($67.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 79% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 75% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Russell 2000 (small cap) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-06 → today (4.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$35,997 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$35,997 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$18,900 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=171.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.