Fiat 124 Spider (2016-2020)
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 27k mi example, ~$19.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 36% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 14 scored forecasts: 36% got the direction right, median value error ±21%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 50 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±13%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 2019 · 3k mi | $17.5K–$38.5K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-18 | 2017 · 51k mi | $10.9K–$23.9K | $16.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2019 · 13k mi | $14.4K–$31.6K | $23.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2019 · 8k mi | $15.3K–$33.6K | $21.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-08 | 2017 · 61k mi | $11.0K–$24.2K | $14.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-23 | 2017 · 31k mi | $13.8K–$30.3K | $16.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-16 | 2020 · 5k mi | $17.9K–$39.3K | $18.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-10 | 2018 · 8k mi | $16.0K–$35.3K | $26.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2019 · 11k mi | classic | $11.9K–$33.3K ($19.9K) |
| open | 2017 · 28k mi | classic | $11.4K–$32.1K ($19.1K) |
| open | 2017 · 51k mi | classic | $9.5K–$26.6K ($15.8K) |
| open | 2017 · 53k mi | classic | $9.4K–$26.4K ($15.7K) |
| open | 2017 · 67k mi | classic | $9.1K–$25.5K ($15.2K) |
| open | 2019 · 11k mi | classic | $11.9K–$33.3K ($19.9K) |
| open | 2017 · 24k mi | classic | $12.0K–$33.7K ($20.1K) |
| open | 2017 · 29k mi | classic | $11.1K–$31.2K ($18.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 55% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 36% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 50% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. CPI (All Urban Consumers) has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-04 → today (3.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,130 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=19.7)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,130 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=94.6)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.