Fiat 124 Spider (2016-2020)
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, +2% vs 2-yr avg, and +6% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 27k mi example, ~$19.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 44% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 16 scored forecasts: 44% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 55 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±12%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 2019 · 8k mi | $14.4K–$32.3K | $26.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-10 | 2017 · 20k mi | $14.2K–$31.7K | $19.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-29 | 2017 · 45k mi | $10.9K–$24.3K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-26 | 2017 · 51k mi | $10.7K–$23.8K | $15.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-21 | 2018 · 54k mi | $10.5K–$23.5K | $15.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2019 · 3k mi | $17.5K–$39.1K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-18 | 2017 · 51k mi | $10.8K–$24.1K | $16.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2019 · 13k mi | $14.4K–$32.2K | $23.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 | C&B | $11.7K–$33.4K ($19.8K) |
| open | 2017 · 58k mi | ebay | $9.3K–$26.1K ($15.6K) |
| open | 2017 · 51k mi | classic | $9.5K–$26.6K ($15.8K) |
| open | 2018 · 47k mi | classic | $8.6K–$27.5K ($15.3K) |
| open | 2017 · 33k mi | classic | $9.3K–$29.9K ($16.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 48% | Low | 44% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 46% | Low | 25% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Nasdaq Composite has historically led it by about 13 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Nasdaq Composite and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, though Personal Savings Rate points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-04 → today (3.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,616 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,916 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,616 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.0)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.