BMW M5 (F90)
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 99%, asking +3% vs historic sold, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 30k mi example, ~$71.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 31 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 138 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 2022 · 1k mi | $91.2K–$201K | $194K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2018 · 110k mi | $31.7K–$69.8K | $29.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-27 | 2018 · 120k mi | $30.5K–$67.2K | $25.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-17 | 2023 · 3k mi | $81.3K–$179K | $104K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-15 | 2020 · 34k mi | $48.1K–$106K | $66.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-08 | 2021 · 18k mi | $58.2K–$128K | $137K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-01 | 2022 · 37k mi | $46.9K–$103K | $128K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-30 | 2019 · 80k mi | $37.4K–$82.2K | $45.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2019 · 48k mi | BaT | $38.1K–$107K ($63.8K) |
| open | 2022 · 7k mi | BaT | $63.4K–$178K ($106K) |
| open | 2020 | C&B | $43.2K–$121K ($72.4K) |
| open | 2018 | C&B | $43.5K–$120K ($72.4K) |
| open | 2023 · 12k mi | classic | $48.5K–$156K ($87.0K) |
| open | 2022 · 19k mi | classic | $41.7K–$134K ($74.8K) |
| open | 2022 · 24k mi | classic | $38.8K–$125K ($69.6K) |
| open | 2021 · 28k mi | classic | $37.2K–$119K ($66.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 49% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 68% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 58% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 69% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$9,700 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-30,195 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-30,195 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$9,700 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.