BMW M5 (F90)
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 99%, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 25k mi example, ~$68.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 63% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 63% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 143 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 2018 · 3k mi | $80.5K–$178K | $71.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2018 · 60k mi | $40.8K–$90.3K | $40.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | 2022 · 7k mi | $73.4K–$163K | $87.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 2020 · 39k mi | $45.1K–$99.9K | $53.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | 2019 · 55k mi | $42.1K–$93.1K | $50.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | 2022 · 1k mi | $98.6K–$218K | $194K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2018 · 110k mi | $32.1K–$71.0K | $29.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-27 | 2018 · 120k mi | $31.0K–$68.7K | $25.8K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2019 · 61k mi | ebay | $33.3K–$94.6K ($56.1K) |
| open | 2018 | C&B | $40.6K–$115K ($68.4K) |
| open | 2019 · 65k mi | ebay | $32.5K–$92.3K ($54.8K) |
| open | 2019 · 61k mi | ebay | $33.6K–$94.9K ($56.4K) |
| open | 2023 · 4k mi | classic | $60.9K–$172K ($102K) |
| open | 2022 · 14k mi | classic | $53.4K–$151K ($89.7K) |
| open | 2022 · 15k mi | classic | $52.8K–$149K ($88.7K) |
| open | 2022 · 20k mi | classic | $48.1K–$136K ($80.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 45% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 63% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 65% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 70% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and VIX Volatility Index, though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-30,195 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-19.5)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,007 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.