BMW M4 (F82)
Flagged undervalued because asking -11% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 36k mi example, ~$45.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 38% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 42 scored forecasts: 38% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 244 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±13%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 2017 · 13k mi | $38.6K–$86.2K | $59.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-21 | 2016 · 29k mi | $30.7K–$68.5K | $50.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-03 | 2018 · 17k mi | $35.3K–$78.8K | $53.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-02 | 2018 · 35k mi | $29.3K–$65.4K | $52.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-01 | 2016 · 78k mi | $20.9K–$46.7K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | 2016 · 1k mi | $52.9K–$118K | $131K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-30 | 2016 · 15k mi | $35.2K–$78.6K | $41.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-29 | 2016 · 9k mi | $40.1K–$89.5K | $83.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 45k mi | BaT | $24.6K–$70.6K ($41.7K) |
| open | 2016 · 9k mi | ebay | $37.8K–$108K ($64.0K) |
| open | 2016 · 9k mi | ebay | $37.4K–$107K ($63.3K) |
| open | 2015 · 80k mi | classic | $17.7K–$49.6K ($29.6K) |
| open | 2016 · 50k mi | classic | $21.9K–$61.5K ($36.7K) |
| open | 2016 · 2k mi | classic | $42.0K–$116K ($69.9K) |
| open | 2016 · 18k mi | classic | $25.7K–$82.6K ($46.1K) |
| open | 2016 · 3k mi | classic | $35.7K–$114K ($63.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 60% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 38% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 23% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 50% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by WTI Crude Oil and Silver, though Silver points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,970 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,801 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.8)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,970 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.