BMW M4 (F82)
Flagged undervalued because asking -10% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 8 yr, 37k mi example, ~$41.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 40% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 40 scored forecasts: 40% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 231 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±14%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 2015 · 38k mi | $27.4K–$60.4K | $39.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2016 · 11k mi | $37.0K–$81.5K | $60.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2016 · 85k mi | $19.1K–$42.1K | $24.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2015 · 39k mi | $27.2K–$59.8K | $63.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2016 · 6k mi | $42.6K–$93.8K | $82.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2015 · 86k mi | $19.0K–$41.8K | $27.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-07 | 2016 · 8k mi | $39.6K–$87.1K | $80.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-05 | 2016 · 27k mi | $29.9K–$65.8K | $54.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2020 · 16k mi | classic | $30.3K–$85.0K ($50.7K) |
| open | 2016 · 46k mi | classic | $22.7K–$63.7K ($38.0K) |
| open | 2015 · 47k mi | classic | $22.4K–$62.8K ($37.5K) |
| open | 2015 · 66k mi | classic | $19.4K–$54.4K ($32.4K) |
| open | 2019 · 80k mi | classic | $17.6K–$49.4K ($29.5K) |
| open | 2015 · 146k mi | classic | $15.2K–$42.7K ($25.5K) |
| open | 2019 · 26k mi | classic | $26.8K–$75.3K ($44.9K) |
| open | 2016 · 69k mi | classic | $19.0K–$53.4K ($31.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 65% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 40% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 49% | Low | 25% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. WTI Crude Oil has historically led it by about 17 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by WTI Crude Oil and Silver.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$9,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,900 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$9,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,256 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.