BMW M3 (F80)
Flagged undervalued because asking -1% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 36k mi example, ~$51.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 192 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 2018 · 41k mi | $33.4K–$74.6K | $65.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2016 · 20k mi | $37.4K–$83.5K | $60.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2016 · 41k mi | $33.3K–$74.3K | $40.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-01 | 2017 · 26k mi | $35.9K–$80.3K | $67.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | 2015 · 88k mi | $24.2K–$54.0K | $34.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-24 | 2015 · 35k mi | $34.1K–$76.2K | $48.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-17 | 2018 · 43k mi | $32.3K–$72.2K | $52.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | 2018 · 19k mi | $37.1K–$82.8K | $71.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 114k mi | ebay | $20.0K–$56.9K ($33.8K) |
| open | 2018 · 46k mi | classic | $28.3K–$79.5K ($47.5K) |
| open | 2018 · 60k mi | classic | $23.2K–$74.4K ($41.5K) |
| open | 2018 · 22k mi | classic | $27.5K–$88.4K ($49.3K) |
| open | 2015 · 136k mi | classic | $16.4K–$52.7K ($29.4K) |
| open | 2017 · 9k mi | classic | $30.8K–$98.9K ($55.2K) |
| open | 2015 · 65k mi | classic | $22.3K–$71.5K ($39.9K) |
| open | 2015 · 64k mi | classic | $22.5K–$72.1K ($40.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 47% | Low | 40% |
| 12 mo | UP | 57% | Low | 54% |
| 24 mo | UP | 61% | Low | 74% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 74% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and Unemployment Rate, though U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,668 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,283 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,283 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.