BMW M3 (F80)
Flagged undervalued because asking +1% vs historic sold, and -21% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 35k mi example, ~$51.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 38 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 184 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 2018 · 49k mi | $30.8K–$68.3K | $57.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-05 | 2015 · 56k mi | $29.4K–$65.0K | $42.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 2016 · 30k mi | $34.4K–$76.1K | $53.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2018 · 50k mi | $30.6K–$67.7K | $49.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-21 | 2018 · 0k mi | $50.0K–$111K | $95.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-19 | 2018 · 38k mi | $33.6K–$74.3K | $57.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-12 | 2018 · 36k mi | $33.8K–$74.7K | $60.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2018 · 36k mi | $33.8K–$74.8K | $56.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 | C&B | $30.4K–$86.5K ($51.3K) |
| open | 2018 | C&B | $30.8K–$87.1K ($51.8K) |
| open | 2018 · 29k mi | classic | $31.3K–$88.5K ($52.6K) |
| open | 2018 · 35k mi | classic | $31.1K–$87.9K ($52.3K) |
| open | 2018 · 36k mi | classic | $31.1K–$87.9K ($52.3K) |
| open | 2018 · 38k mi | classic | $31.0K–$87.7K ($52.2K) |
| open | 2017 · 61k mi | classic | $26.4K–$74.5K ($44.3K) |
| open | 2015 · 71k mi | classic | $24.7K–$69.8K ($41.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 43% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 58% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 58% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and VIX Volatility Index, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,344 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,259 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,259 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,905 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,344 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-13,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.