BMW M3 (F80)
Flagged undervalued because asking -4% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, -26% vs 2-yr avg, and -24% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 8 yr, 40k mi example, ~$50.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 65% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 65% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 177 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 2018 · 36k mi | $34.2K–$75.3K | $56.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2016 · 42k mi | $33.2K–$73.1K | $51.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2015 · 34k mi | $34.3K–$75.5K | $46.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-05 | 2018 · 39k mi | $34.0K–$75.0K | $66.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2016 · 88k mi | $24.6K–$54.2K | $38.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2015 · 60k mi | $25.7K–$72.1K | $41.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2015 · 61k mi | $29.2K–$64.2K | $41.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2016 · 54k mi | $30.3K–$66.7K | $40.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 36k mi | classic | $30.3K–$85.2K ($50.9K) |
| open | 2018 · 52k mi | classic | $27.3K–$76.8K ($45.8K) |
| open | 2016 · 58k mi | classic | $26.3K–$74.0K ($44.1K) |
| open | 2016 · 66k mi | classic | $24.9K–$70.0K ($41.8K) |
| open | 2015 · 72k mi | classic | $24.0K–$67.5K ($40.3K) |
| open | 2015 · 73k mi | classic | $23.8K–$66.9K ($39.9K) |
| open | 2018 · 99k mi | classic | $20.9K–$58.7K ($35.0K) |
| open | 2018 · 21k mi | classic | $31.2K–$87.5K ($52.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 42% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 65% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 64% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 29% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Russell 2000 (small cap) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=76.6)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=20.0)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,001 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=117.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.