Lotus Elise
Flagged undervalued because -57% vs 2-yr avg, -59% vs 3-yr trend, inventory -1%, and sell-through 99%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 22k mi example, ~$45.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 49% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 68 scored forecasts: 49% got the direction right, median value error ±29%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 258 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±12%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | 2011 · 36k mi | $28.9K–$63.6K | $54.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2006 · 9k mi | $36.4K–$80.1K | $65.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2007 | $24.3K–$78.1K | $31.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2007 · 76k mi | $24.4K–$53.6K | $29.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | 2005 · 39k mi | $28.6K–$62.9K | $51.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2008 · 23k mi | $30.6K–$67.4K | $24.9K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2007 · 8k mi | $36.5K–$80.4K | $62.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2005 · 56k mi | $25.9K–$57.0K | $35.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2008 · 28k mi | classic | $26.5K–$74.4K ($44.4K) |
| open | 2008 · 38k mi | classic | $25.5K–$71.7K ($42.8K) |
| open | 2005 · 26k mi | classic | $26.8K–$75.3K ($45.0K) |
| open | 2006 · 18k mi | classic | $28.5K–$79.8K ($47.7K) |
| open | 2005 | C&B | $27.2K–$76.4K ($45.6K) |
| open | 2011 | BaT | $27.5K–$76.1K ($45.8K) |
| open | 2005 · 47k mi | classic | $21.7K–$69.6K ($38.9K) |
| open | 2006 · 31k mi | classic | $23.3K–$74.9K ($41.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 49% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 57% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 4% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-09 → today (9.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 30 | 47 | 47 |
| Nissan 350Z | 41 | 64 | 45 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 45 | 64 | 19 |
| Nissan 370Z | 53 | 49 | 56 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 63 | 42 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 54 | 47 | 54 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,400 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,400 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,400 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,400 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,400 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,400 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.