Lotus Elise
Flagged undervalued because -51% vs 2-yr avg, -53% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 99%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 23k mi example, ~$45.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 69 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±32%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 265 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±13%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 2011 · 37k mi | $28.8K–$63.7K | $59.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-03 | 2005 · 24k mi | $30.4K–$67.3K | $40.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-02 | 2010 · 35k mi | $28.9K–$64.1K | $51.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-01 | 2008 · 7k mi | $37.9K–$83.8K | $71.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 2005 · 61k mi | $25.3K–$55.9K | $34.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2005 · 12k mi | $34.2K–$75.6K | $44.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 2005 · 25k mi | $30.3K–$67.1K | $55.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-10 | 2005 · 67k mi | $24.4K–$54.0K | $54.3K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 6 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2005 · 34k mi | classic | $25.9K–$73.3K ($43.6K) |
| open | 2005 · 31k mi | classic | $26.4K–$74.4K ($44.3K) |
| open | 2008 · 28k mi | classic | $26.5K–$74.4K ($44.4K) |
| open | 2005 · 26k mi | classic | $26.8K–$75.3K ($45.0K) |
| open | 2005 · 47k mi | classic | $21.7K–$69.6K ($38.9K) |
| open | 2006 · 31k mi | classic | $23.3K–$74.9K ($41.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 51% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 43% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 56% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Case-Shiller National Home Price has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 56% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Case-Shiller Home Price and Bitcoin (USD), though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-09 → today (9.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,400 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=11.5)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.