Blended value of a standard 31 yr, 78k mi example, ~$12.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 3 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±74%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1995 · 58k mi
classic
$8.0K–$25.6K ($14.3K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
53%
Low
78%
12 mo
DOWN
45%
Low
67%
24 mo
UP
58%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 23 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the 10-year Treasury yield rose 9%. THEREFORE, given its usual 23-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$120) over the next 23 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.55, 26 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-01 → today (4.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $103K━ S&P 500 $180K━ Gold $229K━ Luxury $79.3K━ Housing $117K₿ Bitcoin $154K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Eagle Talon TSi roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 13% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 43% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-12%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +23mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +9mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Gold (futures), shifted +7mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +12mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Gold (futures), shifted +3mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +7mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +12mo
S&P 500 leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ S&P 500, shifted +5mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
90
Undervaluation
55
Liquidity
41
Speculation Opportunity
74
Depreciation Risk
41
Overvaluation
52
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
-12% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
asking trend +1.6%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices +2.6%/momedian sale trend slope
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.