Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, and -2% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 31 yr, 77k mi example, ~$14.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 3 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±65%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
54%
Low
67%
12 mo
DOWN
44%
Low
67%
24 mo
UP
59%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Gold (futures) has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE gold rose 5%. THEREFORE, given its usual 3-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$268) over the next 3 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.56, 26 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 30% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-01 → today (4.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $122K━ S&P 500 $184K━ Gold $243K━ Luxury $70.1K━ Housing $119K₿ Bitcoin $202K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Eagle Talon TSi roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 34% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+3%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Gold (futures), shifted +3mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +23mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +9mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +15mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +12mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +7mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +4mo
S&P 500 leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ S&P 500, shifted +5mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
62
Undervaluation
62
Liquidity
54
Speculation Opportunity
71
Depreciation Risk
46
Overvaluation
47
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
-2% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
asking trend +0.2%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices +2.4%/momedian sale trend slope
-14% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
new-listing velocity 14% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.