Blended value of a standard 31 yr, 77k mi example, ~$13.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 5 scored forecasts: 20% got the direction right, median value error ±1024%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
49%
Low
45%
12 mo
UP
49%
Low
20%
24 mo
UP
49%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 23 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the 10-year Treasury yield rose 22%. THEREFORE, given its usual 23-month head start, we expect little change — about +0% (≈ +$1) over the next 23 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.59, 28 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-01 → today (4.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $118K━ S&P 500 $186K━ Gold $249K━ Luxury $78.0K━ Housing $119K₿ Bitcoin $165K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Eagle Talon TSi roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 36% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-1%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +23mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +4mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +16mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +7mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.45). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +21mo
Housing Starts leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.45). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ Housing Starts, shifted +14mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +22mo
S&P 500 leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Eagle Talon TSi┄ S&P 500, shifted +5mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
27
Undervaluation
57
Liquidity
45
Speculation Opportunity
29
Depreciation Risk
66
Overvaluation
29
-94% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
-94% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -1.7%/momedian sale trend slope
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.