BMW M5 (E60)
Flagged undervalued because asking -8% vs historic sold, and sell-through 88%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 80k mi example, ~$27.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 76% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 68 scored forecasts: 76% got the direction right, median value error ±20%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 303 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±24%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | 2006 · 39k mi | $20.4K–$45.6K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2007 · 162k mi | $11.2K–$25.1K | $11.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2006 · 166k mi | $11.2K–$25.0K | $25.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-03 | 2006 · 47k mi | $19.9K–$44.5K | $21.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-02 | 2006 · 68k mi | $18.6K–$41.5K | $22.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | 2006 · 139k mi | $11.2K–$25.1K | $12.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-26 | 2010 · 24k mi | $22.2K–$49.6K | $47.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-25 | 2008 · 47k mi | $19.4K–$43.3K | $35.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 4 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2008 · 59k mi | BaT | $17.7K–$50.7K ($29.9K) |
| open | 2008 | C&B | $16.0K–$45.9K ($27.1K) |
| open | 2006 · 79k mi | classic | $14.9K–$42.0K ($25.0K) |
| open | 2010 · 90k mi | classic | $13.2K–$42.3K ($23.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 57% | Low | 65% |
| 12 mo | UP | 62% | Low | 76% |
| 24 mo | UP | 67% | Low | 88% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 49% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and Core CPI (ex food/energy), though US Regular Gas Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-05 → today (12.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.91). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.