Cadillac CT5-V Blackwing
Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +0.6%/mo, and +5% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 3k mi example, ~$90.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 29% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 17 scored forecasts: 29% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 74 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±9%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 2025 · 7k mi | $60.4K–$134K | $98.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2024 · 5k mi | $61.5K–$136K | $93.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 2024 · 3k mi | $63.1K–$140K | $93.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2024 · 0k mi | $68.3K–$151K | $107K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-04 | 2022 · 6k mi | $61.2K–$135K | $79.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-02 | 2022 · 5k mi | $61.9K–$137K | $87.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-02 | 2023 · 9k mi | $62.0K–$137K | $80.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-27 | 2023 · 0k mi | $69.4K–$154K | $94.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2023 | C&B | $54.2K–$153K ($91.1K) |
| open | 2024 · 36k mi | classic | $53.5K–$151K ($89.9K) |
| open | 2024 · 11k mi | classic | $53.6K–$151K ($90.1K) |
| open | 2024 · 35k mi | classic | $53.7K–$152K ($90.2K) |
| open | 2022 · 51k mi | classic | $49.3K–$139K ($82.9K) |
| open | 2023 · 9k mi | classic | $53.4K–$151K ($89.7K) |
| open | 2022 · 17k mi | classic | $54.7K–$154K ($91.9K) |
| open | 2025 · 3k mi | classic | $56.9K–$161K ($95.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Moderate | 48% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 57% | Moderate | 29% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 57% | Moderate | 20% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Core CPI (ex food/energy) and Silver.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-04 → today (4.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 17 | 68 | 61 |
| Nissan 350Z | 43 | 68 | 50 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 29 | 55 | 57 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 54 | 40 | 45 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 36 | 58 | 45 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 44 | 37 | 36 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 17 | 38 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,650 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=16.6)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,997 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$9,374 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.