Cadillac CT5-V Blackwing
Flagged undervalued because asking -3% vs historic sold, +5% vs 3-yr trend, and +5% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 3k mi example, ~$89.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 28% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 18 scored forecasts: 28% got the direction right, median value error ±12%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 78 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 2025 · 2k mi | $64.8K–$145K | $127K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | 2023 · 9k mi | $60.8K–$136K | $81.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 2022 · 2k mi | $65.4K–$146K | $88.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | 2023 · 26k mi | $59.4K–$133K | $82.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 2025 · 7k mi | $59.9K–$134K | $98.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | 2024 · 5k mi | $61.2K–$137K | $93.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 2024 · 3k mi | $62.9K–$141K | $93.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2024 · 0k mi | $67.9K–$152K | $107K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2023 | C&B | $53.1K–$152K ($89.9K) |
| open | 2025 · 22k mi | ebay | $52.7K–$151K ($89.3K) |
| open | 2025 · 11k mi | ebay | $52.9K–$152K ($89.5K) |
| open | 2025 · 22k mi | ebay | $52.7K–$151K ($89.2K) |
| open | 2025 · 22k mi | ebay | $52.7K–$151K ($89.2K) |
| open | 2022 · 43k mi | classic | $50.9K–$144K ($85.6K) |
| open | 2025 · 9k mi | ebay | $53.4K–$150K ($89.6K) |
| open | 2025 · 4k mi | classic | $55.7K–$156K ($93.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 56% | Moderate | 50% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 54% | Moderate | 28% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 53% | Moderate | 17% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-04 → today (4.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 1M Coupe (E82) | 44 | 44 | 57 |
| Nissan 350Z | 55 | 53 | 53 |
| Nissan 350Z NISMO | 51 | 9 | 56 |
| Nissan 370Z | 50 | 45 | 46 |
| Alfa Romeo 4C | 50 | 49 | 39 |
| Fiat 500 (2012-2019) | 66 | 29 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman | 47 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.7)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$21,548 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.