Mercury Cougar
Flagged undervalued because asking +0% vs historic sold, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 54 yr, 46k mi example, ~$18.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 57% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 137 scored forecasts: 57% got the direction right, median value error ±36%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 230 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±46%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | 1968 · 83k mi | $11.1K–$36.3K | $58.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-06 | 1969 · 14k mi | $13.8K–$45.3K | $27.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-31 | 1969 · 50k mi | $10.8K–$35.4K | $29.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 1973 · 12k mi | $13.8K–$45.2K | $22.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-09 | 1973 · 93k mi | $10.2K–$33.5K | $15.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-10 | 1971 · 76k mi | $11.2K–$36.8K | $23.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-10 | 1968 · 35k mi | $9.7K–$31.9K | $23.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-09 | 1971 · 59k mi | $11.8K–$38.6K | $23.1K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1969 · 49k mi | classic | $9.0K–$41.6K ($19.4K) |
| open | 1969 | classic | $8.7K–$40.2K ($18.7K) |
| open | 1971 · 78k mi | ebay | $9.5K–$44.1K ($20.5K) |
| open | 1999 · 29k mi | ebay | $9.5K–$44.3K ($20.6K) |
| open | 1973 · 47k mi | ebay | $8.9K–$41.1K ($19.1K) |
| open | 1973 · 62k mi | BaT | $10.6K–$49.2K ($22.9K) |
| open | 1969 · 48k mi | BaT | $9.0K–$41.6K ($19.3K) |
| open | 1986 · 47k mi | classic | $8.9K–$41.2K ($19.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 69% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 57% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 53% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-01 → today (20.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevrolet Camaro Z28 (5th Gen) | 46 | 61 | 35 |
| Ford Mustang Fox Body SVT Cobra | 33 | 69 | 28 |
| Plymouth Barracuda | 43 | 70 | 26 |
| Plymouth Barracuda 'Cuda | 45 | 90 | 26 |
| Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) SS | 23 | 29 | 2 |
| Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) Z28 | 28 | 40 | 26 |
| Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen | 45 | 37 | 26 |
| Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z | 38 | 34 | 21 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,499 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.5)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,499 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,499 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.