Chevrolet SS Sedan (Holden Commodore)
Given the thin data state, this market outlook for the Chevrolet SS Sedan (Holden Commodore) is a low-confidence read, with appreciation momentum scoring 65.73, undervaluation at 62.14, and depreciation risk at 36.42. Forecasts indicate an 'up' direction with 0.49 to 0.5 probability over 6 to 24 months in a volatile regime, with the High-Yield Bond Spread showing a -0.74 correlation 12 months out as the strongest leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 45k mi example, ~$45.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 35 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±12%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 94 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±9%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 2017 · 45k mi | $25.0K–$81.7K | $40.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2016 · 65k mi | $22.8K–$74.6K | $45.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | 2016 · 16k mi | $28.9K–$94.5K | $57.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | 2016 · 16k mi | $24.5K–$113K | $57.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | 2017 · 29k mi | $27.2K–$89.0K | $48.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-28 | 2017 · 131k mi | $10.1K–$46.8K | $19.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-28 | 2017 · 131k mi | $11.9K–$38.8K | $19.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2016 · 61k mi | $23.7K–$77.3K | $36.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2014 · 94k mi | classic | $16.8K–$77.7K ($36.1K) |
| open | 2014 · 107k mi | classic | $13.4K–$62.2K ($28.9K) |
| open | 2016 · 56k mi | classic | $19.5K–$90.6K ($42.1K) |
| open | 2017 · 9k mi | ebay | $24.5K–$114K ($52.8K) |
| open | 2016 · 46k mi | classic | $20.5K–$95.0K ($44.1K) |
| open | 2017 · 64k mi | classic | $19.0K–$88.0K ($40.8K) |
| open | 2015 · 68k mi | classic | $18.6K–$86.5K ($40.2K) |
| open | 2017 · 81k mi | classic | $17.8K–$82.4K ($38.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 54% |
| 24 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 35% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 51% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and WTI Crude Oil, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-05 → today (10.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevrolet Camaro Z28 (5th Gen) | 46 | 61 | 35 |
| Ford Mustang Fox Body SVT Cobra | 33 | 69 | 28 |
| Plymouth Barracuda | 43 | 70 | 26 |
| Plymouth Barracuda 'Cuda | 45 | 90 | 26 |
| Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) SS | 23 | 29 | 2 |
| Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) Z28 | 28 | 40 | 26 |
| Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen | 45 | 37 | 26 |
| Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z | 38 | 34 | 21 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,554 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,554 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,995 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,554 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,554 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.