Chevrolet SS Sedan (Holden Commodore)
This is a low-confidence read for the Chevrolet SS Sedan market, given the thin data state. Indicators show an undervaluation score of 63.0, a speculation opportunity of 62.32, and a depreciation risk of 38.97, while forecasts suggest an 'up' direction with 0.49-0.5 probability but a volatile regime across all horizons. The High-Yield Bond Spread is the strongest leading indicator, showing a -0.74 correlation with a 12-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 45k mi example, ~$43.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±8%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 97 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±9%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 2015 · 26k mi | $27.2K–$85.7K | $40.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-19 | 2017 · 32k mi | $26.2K–$82.4K | $43.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2017 · 49k mi | $24.6K–$77.3K | $35.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2017 · 45k mi | $25.5K–$80.3K | $40.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2016 · 65k mi | $23.1K–$72.8K | $45.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | 2016 · 16k mi | $29.1K–$91.6K | $57.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-06 | 2016 · 16k mi | $24.5K–$113K | $57.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | 2017 · 29k mi | $28.0K–$88.2K | $48.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2016 | C&B | $20.0K–$94.4K ($43.5K) |
| open | 2015 · 43k mi | classic | $20.6K–$95.2K ($44.3K) |
| open | 2014 · 10k mi | ebay | $25.2K–$117K ($54.3K) |
| open | 2017 · 1k mi | classic | $27.1K–$115K ($55.8K) |
| open | 2017 · 75k mi | classic | $17.6K–$74.6K ($36.2K) |
| open | 2014 · 85k mi | classic | $16.9K–$71.4K ($34.7K) |
| open | 2016 · 36k mi | classic | $21.6K–$91.3K ($44.4K) |
| open | 2017 · 34k mi | classic | $21.7K–$91.8K ($44.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 54% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 40% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 27% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 2-Year Treasury Yield and Initial Jobless Claims, though U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-05 → today (10.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevrolet Camaro Z28 (5th Gen) | 53 | 36 | 56 |
| Ford Mustang Fox Body SVT Cobra | 49 | 41 | 29 |
| Plymouth Barracuda | 32 | 82 | 37 |
| Plymouth Barracuda 'Cuda | 33 | 86 | 63 |
| Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) SS | 42 | 42 | 37 |
| Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) Z28 | 59 | 36 | 52 |
| Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen | 53 | 51 | 46 |
| Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z | 50 | 47 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$18,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-11,890 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-11,890 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,425 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-11,890 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.