Dodge Charger (2006-2023)
Given a "thin" data state, this is a low-confidence read for the Dodge Charger (2006-2023) market. Current signals show appreciation momentum at 34.53 and depreciation risk at 60.07, while forecasts suggest a slightly 'up' direction over 6, 12, and 24 months with probabilities of 0.51 to 0.53, all within a volatile regime. The 10-Year Treasury Yield is identified as a strong leading indicator, correlating at 0.74, 12 months ahead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 5 yr, 6k mi example, ~$43.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 57 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±44%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 181 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±46%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 2016 · 0k mi | $35.5K–$163K | $57.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-05 | 2016 · 0k mi | $38.2K–$124K | $57.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 2023 · 21k mi | $14.9K–$48.4K | $47.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-28 | 2013 · 72k mi | $10.4K–$33.9K | $28.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2022 · 24k mi | $14.7K–$47.9K | $22.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2007 · 53k mi | $12.8K–$41.6K | $18.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-09 | 2023 · 0k mi | $37.3K–$172K | $80.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | 2016 · 4k mi | $26.6K–$113K | $70.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2023 · 58k mi | ebay | $11.2K–$52.9K ($24.3K) |
| open | 2022 · 60k mi | ebay | $11.1K–$52.4K ($24.1K) |
| open | 2023 · 37k mi | ebay | $12.7K–$60.1K ($27.6K) |
| open | 2022 · 53k mi | ebay | $11.5K–$54.4K ($25.0K) |
| open | 2019 · 123k mi | ebay | $5.9K–$27.9K ($12.8K) |
| open | 2019 · 136k mi | ebay | $5.7K–$26.8K ($12.3K) |
| open | 2018 · 141k mi | ebay | $5.6K–$26.4K ($12.1K) |
| open | 2014 · 142k mi | ebay | $5.6K–$26.3K ($12.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 62% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 54% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 53% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 55% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and Core CPI (ex food/energy), though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-04 → today (10.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevrolet Camaro Z28 (5th Gen) | 39 | 49 | 49 |
| Ford Mustang Fox Body SVT Cobra | 32 | 73 | 31 |
| Plymouth Barracuda | 60 | 53 | 33 |
| Plymouth Barracuda 'Cuda | 60 | 49 | 33 |
| Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) SS | 19 | 64 | 36 |
| Chevrolet Camaro (2nd Generation, 1970-1981) Z28 | 44 | 53 | 53 |
| Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen | 55 | 50 | 47 |
| Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen IROC-Z | 49 | 47 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-7,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,572 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,008 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,800 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.